Value bet river?

Posted by Chael Sonnen

Posted by Chael Sonnen posted in Mid Stakes

Posted 11 years, 4 months ago

Value bet river?

BN: Hero: $220.93
SB: klipps: $188.85
BB: Hookz: $883.36
UTG: Bupal_gdy: $272
HJ: cmore1985: $200
CO: _KAL_EL2121_: $410.51

Villian is unknown

Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)

Hero was dealt Q K
Bupal_gdy folds, cmore1985 raises to $6, _KAL_EL2121_ folds, Hero raises to $18, klipps folds, Hookz folds, cmore1985 calls $12

Decided to 3-bet bluff. Don't have any stats on this guy right now, but I assume I bluffed here because he's too loose, or that he folds to too many 3-bets.

Flop ($39.00) 6 7 K (2 Players)

cmore1985 checks, Hero bets $19, cmore1985 calls $19

On a board this dry my fold equity doesn't really change with bet sizes, and I don't need to protect from much.
Since I assume he 4-bet AK, I have close to the nuts here.

Turn ($77.00) 6 7 K 5 (2 Players)

cmore1985 checks, Hero bets $42, cmore1985 calls $42

Definitely not a great card because 65s, 98 got there, but I think betting for value/protection again is best.

River ($161.00) 6 7 K 5 4 (2 Players)

cmore1985 checks

This runout hits his range better than mine, though I don't think he has many straights here. He might expect me to bluff this scarecard, so should value bet more thinly.

So, value bet or not?

4 Comments

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Teddy 11 years, 4 months ago

I think a bet will look very polarized as you will consider checking AA, AK also if you check this and if he expects this, he will likely call more bluffcatchers, along with leading rivers.

I´m valubetting if I think he leads some strong hands and checking otherwise.