V 2x pot on turn. We're high in our range, but this smells funny.
Posted by Frankie Carson
Posted by
Frankie Carson
posted in
Low Stakes
V 2x pot on turn. We're high in our range, but this smells funny.
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (8 Players)
CO: $112.25
BN: $95.81
SB: $27.53
BB: $104.68
UTG: $100.00 (Hero)
UTG+1: $181.83
MP: $140.55
MP+1: $105.79
BN: $95.81
SB: $27.53
BB: $104.68
UTG: $100.00 (Hero)
UTG+1: $181.83
MP: $140.55
MP+1: $105.79
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is UTG with
Q
Q
, , ,
Flop
($19.50)
6
6
7
, ,
Turn
($43.50)
6
6
7
6
,
No real reads. V has played 12 hands and hasn't really been involved in a pot.
V quickly 3bet pre and quickly made flop/turn bets. I know Pio's telling me to call since since QQ certainly qualifies for top 33% of range, but exploitively I feel this is AA/KK the majority of the time. He gave no thought to 2x the turn, I can't imagine him doing that with AK. If feels like a situation where I am hoping he's overplaying TT/JJ, but I think that is less likely than KK/AA.
Idk, tough spot for those who like to layer in non-GTO to game.
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Honestly I'm very inclined to call this off and actually call off very light with my range (I'm probably calling AK here), AA are basically invulnerable on this turn and want you to keep putting in money with 0 (or 2) outs and pretty much the same with KK. If anything this is JJ/TT that really don't want to see an over card but it more just screams someone desperately trying to rep aces than someone who actually has them. Definitely not folding QQ here, on a very dynamic board this would make sense with overpairs just hoping to protect it's equity against flush and straight draws and get it in with some top pairs before a scare card comes but here it just really doesn't make any sense from a thinking player imo.
This is all just intuition though, not at home atm but I can run some pio sims later if you're interested in the theory view but it almost certainly calls this off and much more.
FWIW, I have run into extremely tight players who bet a ridiculous amount on flop/turn with AA, trying to stack overpairs here.
That said, I think that the way to use reads is to make decisions on the margin. Do you 4-bet KK preflop (I'm not familiar with 8-handed ranges)? If so, QQ is the best hand you can have here, so it's not a close decision to call here. It's dangerous to make some very out of line play based on your reads. Your reads can be wrong.
I'd just call it off. Calling is probably a smaller mistake (if it is one) than folding would be.
In terms of preflop idk if hero is doing this but I'd personally have a lot of combos of AA here, the ranges are so well defined here that I don't think you run into many problems flatting it even if the board runs out pretty nasty.
Yea Ill have some frequency of KK and AA here.
Do you guys every factor in insta betting speed into your analysis? Jw generally and also for this hand given he insta'd flop, turn. What do you make of it?
I think something like this is very dangerous to add into your game, yes it can help but you might just come up against someone like me who snap bets a lot as both a bluff and as value and you're going to end up levelling yourself thinking about timing tells rather than playing poker which makes you more likely to make a mistake.
I do try to factor timing tells into my analysis. But they're often hard to apply.
The problem with tells is that one can justify any decision by saying that "I had a tell so I did X". Like all tells, one should tend to use timing tells to make marginal decisions. I think here QQ is too high up in our range to be considered a "marginal" call.
Ok thanks guys
Probably just gotta call. Basically unknown, he can easily have JJ here. I expect his pair range to be JJ+. Introduce TT to his range and this is a slam dunk call. I think JJ is much more incentivized to just push and deny equity vs AK & AQs here than AA/KK are. In his shoes, what protection does AA/KK really need?
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