Hello, I never playmore than two tables and I don't have much time at the moment to play to get a statistically significant hand history sample so I thought i'd try to calculate a confidence interval for my winrate and play around with the numbers ( http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ )

this month it's at 200bb/100 for 600 hands on 10NL. Obviously that's way too high, but I want to calculate if I still may be a losing player or what my reasonable lowest true winrate may be. For fun

What I've tried so far is standard deviation of 120bb(highest listed for 6max) input in the variance calculator. It's now telling me 95% confidence interval is [102.02 BB/100, 297.98 BB/100]. So I must have luck outside standard deviation

Some more results:
If true winrate is 10bb/100, probability of running at or above 200bb over 600 hands is 0.0053%
If true winrate is 30bb/100, probability of running at or above 200bb over 600 hands is 0.0260%
If true winrate is 60bb/100, probability of running at or above 200bb over 600 hands is 0.2133% (probability of running below 200bb/100 with true winrate of 60bb: 99.7867%)

Am I missing something? Can we confirm the goal winrates posted around for 10NL is bad,especially for euro sites? Did I win in lotto and should shut up and come back when I have 1 million hands? Is the formula incorrect for low samples?- It shouldn't be if what they're using is normal statistic tests

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Also, another question. In 600 hands what's the chance of me having full house versus their quads? Because that has happened 3 times in this sample. I've had full house 4-5 times. Often I feel it in my stomach when they suddenly go all in on a card that they have quads, but folding full house? I understand that the odds of quads are higher when I have full house but idk. Currently, folding every full house would be +EV for me. Also, the reason I play this low stakes is I lost my almost my whole BR on higher stakes with full house lots of times against their quads. Full houses haven't been good to me. Maybe I'm underestimating the odds of quads