ur view, advice etc

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

ur view, advice etc

hello,

this is my first and hopefully an interesting post. i am really struggling beating the low stakes and i want to improve sow i can play higher limits. i struggle at the low limits because i think that i outthink myself. or just because i play sow freaking bad.
everyone get their fair share of coolers and bad beats, but i am not going to talk about that.
what i am going to post a hand i recently played, and it is a hand in which i think i need to get better for me to go higher in stakes. (sidenote: ive got some experience in poker, and recently played with pokersnowie, which opened my eyes in certain things, furthermore ive seen a few vids of ben sulsky, which i think were very usefull)

like i said i am going to post a hand, i am going to talk about the hand street by street, i am going to tell my reasoning and i am going to show what i think our ranges could be. after the hand i got some questions and i hope u can help me with that.

1*
Full Tilt - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 105.5 BB
SB: 40 BB (VPIP: 20.41, PFR: 20.41, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 49)
BB: 131.2 BB (VPIP: 22.58, PFR: 17.74, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 252)
UTG: 132.9 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 26)
MP: 116.6 BB (VPIP: 19.76, PFR: 13.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.80, Hands: 346)
CO: 168.8 BB (VPIP: 12.63, PFR: 8.95, 3Bet Preflop: 3.95, Hands: 394)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Jc Jd
fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 7.5 BB

Flop : (22.5 BB, 2 players) 9c Qc Ah
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn : (22.5 BB, 2 players) 5h
CO bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River : (42.5 BB, 2 players) As
CO bets 40 BB, Hero calls 40 BB

CO shows Ac Qd (Full House, Aces full of Queens)
(Pre 43%, Flop 89%, Turn 95%)

Hero mucks Jc Jd (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 57%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)

CO wins 116.4 BB

analysis:
preflop:
cutoff opens, and i 3bet JJ, fairly standard, i could call, but since i do not know my opponent i tend to 3bet this hands, this way i can see how he reacts, will he fold to the 3bet, which hands he will call oop, will he 4bet etc. He ends up calling my 3bet (snapcall)

ranges:
his range: i think his 3bet calling range consist every pocketpair (excep QQ+), Axsuited, A8offsuit +, every broadway suited and unsuited, and i think he will call with suited connectors, like 76s up till 10-8. something like that
my range: i know my 3bet range, i consist of some big hands, but it also could some low/mediocre suited cards or some trashy hands like k5 A9offsuit etc.

flop:
flop comes AQ9 2 clubs. he check and i check behind. i could bet in this spot, but i think its to thin right now. because when he calls the bet it puts me in some though spots on later streets. so i decided to check. i could get value from worse hands, but i think a check is fine.

ranges:
his range: see flop, it doesnt change
my range: betting range, every set, big aces, every 2 pair and all of my bluffing hands (low suited connectors, k5 etc.)
checking back range: KK (70% check/30% bet) some weak Aces like A9 or weaker. some draws like k-j or something, and i would check back my Qx and lower pairs (JJ check 85% bet 15%). and maybe i say maybe i would check back AA, but since his range connect pretty well i think i would a set here like 98%.

turn:
brings the 5. and now he leads. i see only see 1 option here really, and that is to call. i have no reason 2 raise, since my flopcheck indicates a weakish hand.

ranges:
his range: bet; every A, maybe a Q or a 9. 2pair AQ or A9 and myabe even Q9. a set, which would be a set of 9 or 5. and for the rest he could bet a lot of draws, k-j, j-10, flushdraw etc.
my range: raising range would only bet A5 at this point since i would have bet my other strong hands on the flop.
calling range. Ax, KK Qx, JJ-1010, and a lot draws. and i would probably call A5, since when i raise now i rep such a narrow range.

river:
brings another A. and now he leads pot!! good bet. (sidenote if i were him i would shove!! better and polarized, ideal spot. because my value hands which i made the turncall with have showdown value, sow they can bluffcatch. and when he was bluffing hiimself on the turn he get max fold equity, since i sometimes have a bluffcatcher and do need to call some % of the time. value bet a Q i think that would be to thin, since i can easily have him beat (Ax or KK). but i am not raising here like ever, since i cannot rep sow many strong hands (only A5). sow if i were him and have like Ax, a boat or like a bluff i would have jammed this river. and if i had like a Q i would valuebet thinly, to get valuefrom worse, and if he decides to shoves i would still call, because of my narrow value shoving range).

now to my point of view, since i know that a Q in this spot would be thinly, i assume that he needs to have an A, a boat or a bluff! i call and see the bad news.

the real question now is:
did i play my hand fine/correct?
does villain ever gonna have a bluffing range here?? because players at these stakes tend to bluff some very bad bluffable boards , like 2-3-10-7-k, and then they overbet or pot river. but this hand got ideal river shove, but they never show me a bluff in these spots (in which i should respond to fold), but then to my question, do they have a bluffing range here ever, or do i need to fold JJ-KK and maybe Ax always??
did i outthink myself in calling that river??

its a lot to read, but i would be happy with some feedback

kind regards and good luck at the tables

5 Comments

Loading 5 Comments...

DDonkeyKong 10 years, 1 month ago

Just fold. You block KJ,JT and i don't know how your 3bet range looks but on this board JJ should be near bottom of your range so you can easily fold JJ.

sauloCosta10 10 years, 1 month ago

This is a standard hand so I think you are right when you say you are out-thinking yourself...this spot happens very often. The only decision is to bluff catch or not OTR. From your sample villain is an extremely nit guy...from his stats its already sufficient to say that the range you gave him for calling pre is way too wide. His calling range is basically ATs+, 77+ and KQs, KJs. Also nits don't usually double barrel, and look at his turn bet sizing...I believe that when bluffing he chooses a size at least greater than 14 to maximize fold equity. OTR he is giving you 33% on a call. He is never bluffing more than 1/3 of the time for you to bluff catch. With all hands that have showdown value but not an A he is going to x/c either turn or river, so you can exclude these hands. All being said, and considering his range which is composed by a lot of Ax hands, you have and easy fold OTR

try2think 10 years, 1 month ago

thanks for replying:)
first question, why is it the bottom of my range?? in a normal situation, when some1 is polarized this is an oke spot to call, because he needs to have bluffs in his range.

thank u saulo for ur advice. i understand what ur saying. but still even if hes a nit, and villain understand hes a nit, he needs to bluff sometimes, doesnt he?? or are these opponent just not thinking in that kind of way?? and am i thinking a little bit to much in this way and its going to be wrong against these types of opponent.

sauloCosta10 10 years, 1 month ago

Of course he should bluff some % because otherwise you can exploit him by folding. The problem is that villain is not playing optimally. Unless you give me enough reasons to believe this, I wont assume villain is playing optimally, just because villains will play exploitative strategies in order to maximize EV. So in this spot he just wants to maximize his EV by betting the most possible amount you could call. But lets say villain is playing optimally. As he is giving you 33% on a call, he should have 2x value hands and x bluff hands, where x is a random number. Lets say that he value bets this river with any A that I assigned him (ATs+). This is ATs(2) + AJ (8) + AQ(6) + AK(8) + QQ(3) + 99(3). Lets be conservative and say that he 4b AK half of the time, and QQ as well. So his value range has 2 + 8 + 6 + 4 + 1.5 + 3 = 24.5 combos. Lets say 24. This means that for him to play optimally he should bluff 12 combos. The question is: which hands he turn into bluffs? 77 - JJ? Qx? I really dont think so. Any hand that has showdown value but no an A he x/c river because its hard for you to have an A with the line you took. That's why villain play can be exploited by folding, because he is not bluffing enough.

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