Underrepped with trips good kicker - exploitable fold ?

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Underrepped with trips good kicker - exploitable fold ?

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players) BN: $217.16
SB: $304.97
BB: $204.42
UTG: $287.94 (Hero)
MP: $200.00
CO: $236.23
Small sample on hero he's likely a regular playing 29/25 over 170 hands with 9% call open.
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is UTG with A J
Hero raises to $5.00, MP calls $5.00, 4 folds
Flop ($13.00) A 5 7
Hero checks, MP bets $10.00, Hero calls $10.00
Turn ($33.00) A 5 7 A
Hero checks, MP bets $25.00, Hero calls $25.00
River ($83.00) A 5 7 A 8
Hero checks, MP bets $64.00, Hero calls $64.00
I ended up calling but I've got good reasons to believe this may be a fold despite being high in my range. Thoughts?

3 Comments

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Edwinvw 10 years, 2 months ago

Well I doubt villain will valuebet less on the river so your hand basically becomes a bluffcatcher. With a 9% opencall he has some QJs JTs, 22/44 hands he could play this way. The problem is that this board hits ur range pretty hard so I dont see regulars bluffing here enough to get the 30% we need.

From balancing perspectives if we fold AJ here we do fold KK QQ aswell, so you got to put AQ/AK (often) in ur chekcall range to not get raped in these spots ;)

But yea i guess its a fold

gargamel_fk 10 years, 2 months ago

I don't think it is bad. I mean he will end up sometimes value betting here something silly like ATs,A2s-A4s he for some reason called pre (because people do).
I mean unless you check your entire range in that kind of spot which honestly isn't a bad idea AJo is sort of top of your range so if you don't call it you have no x/calling range. So in a vacuum I don't think it is bad to call here.

PokerIsHard 10 years, 2 months ago

Versus a different sizing, you can find a x/c, but w/o history, when a regz bet 75% pot, 75% pot and 77% pot on such a dry board when your range is face up, you have to muck it.

Even with AQ it's probably a x/f, giving position.

Never ever folding AK of course, we split too much and we crush AQs :)

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