Two pair v river bet
Posted by DiamondClub
Posted by
DiamondClub
posted in
Low Stakes
Two pair v river bet
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (3 Players)
BN: $10.10 (Hero)
SB: $4.90
BB: $10.00
SB: $4.90
BB: $10.00
Villain is 21/18 AF=4, FCB=62 over 900 hands
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
8
A
, ,
Flop
($0.55)
8
A
5
, , ,
Turn
($2.49)
8
A
5
6
,
River
($5.89)
8
A
5
6
J
,
If he takes this line w/ 55,88,A5,A8 and maybe AJ (if he x/r the with that), then I am good here 40% (I block so many of his value hands here) of the time and have to call and that's assuming he never bluffs here. What do you think ?
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I expect to see AK/AQ/AJ here a lot of the time, especially with the River bet. If your analysis is right re: odds to call then I think a call is fine. You shouldn't be as strong as 2 pair here.
Thanks for the reply.
Do you think there's merit in 3betting the flop with the plan to get it in ? That will probably depend a lot on whether he is willing stack off w/ AK,AQ in this spot I suppose.
Good question. My instinct was yes, but then I got thinking about the AJ type of hands, and perhaps he can fold these if we 3bet the Flop.
If we're going for stacks maybe call Flop then raise/GII on the Turn. This allows a further barrel to be fired and might give the Villain the impression that he's now committed and has to go with this hand.
It would be bizarre for villain to have AK/AQ/AJ after preflop. Think it's just an easy call down after the flop x/r.
Villain can have 1 combo of set 8 and 3 combos of set 5, total 4 combos beat us.
6 combos of A5, 12 combos of 76 (given turn is a 6).
nut/bluff combo wise, it's an easy call OTR imo.
Yeah calling seems fine.
How big a leak would be raising/playing for stacks on the turn here? I am transitioning over from tourneys and still think that players go broke there w AK/AQ.
I think after his x/r on the flop, we would make sure that he doesn't continue w/ anything worse than two pair. Therefore, I would think, that after he takes this flop action we can call down or bet river if he checks to us.
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