Turning a made hand into a bluff
Posted by CheaterBot
Posted by
CheaterBot
posted in
Low Stakes
Turning a made hand into a bluff
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $101.88 (Hero)
SB: $42.69
BB: $50.00
UTG: $313.38
MP: $169.62
CO: $50.00
SB: $42.69
BB: $50.00
UTG: $313.38
MP: $169.62
CO: $50.00
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BN with
2
2
, , ,
I changed my hand for the purposes of this post so please don't evaluate as if I have 22 here. The UTG was playing pretty aggressive opening and with 3bets but I hadn't seen any showdowns at this point.
Flop
($3.75)
T
6
J
,
Turn
($8.43)
T
6
J
3
,
River
($18.99)
T
6
J
3
4
Just in case, I'll say it 1 more time here. I did not have 22 in this hand. I tried to put ?? in the hand history for my hand but apparently that crashes site haha. My hope is that by not putting my actual hand it will help to think more about my range (or your range) in this spot.
What made hands do you think we should be turning into a bluff on this river and what sizing do you think is best?
I guess the more important question though is what range of hands do you expect to check on the river? Of those hands what do you think is the strongest group that will fold?
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I would fold pre. I rather choose better pp's to flat vs UTG range.
Spewing play postflop unless you have notes that V CB a lot then have a lot of X/F OTT.
I prefer to float with blockers. OTR if I had a good blocker I woudn't bet to big as a bluff, if villain is prepared to X/C with and overcard or so, he will X/C vs 1/2 to 3/4 imo.
Someone more experienced corrects me if I'm wrong.
Thank you for taking the time to respond but I didn't actually have 22 in this hand. I changed because I didn't want people to think about what I actually had.
One thing that stands out to me though is that you said if you had blockers you wouldn't bet big as a bluff. Why is that?
If UTG is charging you for the flush draw, he is likely to X/F OTR when the third club comes, so he will X/F for 1/2, 2/3, 3/4 whatever bet. The same if he is decided to X/C with a lower rank than flush (sets, two pairs, overpairs), imo he will call no matter the sizing, if you bet 1/2, 2/3 etc, unless you play using fancy overbets.
What hand did you have?
So what you are saying is that on this river you bet small with all of your air and check back all of your made hands that aren't good enough to value bet?
Also if you are betting a flush, what size would you use?
If you have a value made hand, bet bigger than bluffing.
If you know that the villain does not save betting sizing patterns from you, then you don't have to mix the sizings, bet bigger with your values and small with your bluffs.
But if V is a good reg and pay attention to all those patterns, you should find a indifference Bet value. From all your betting combos (value+bluff), if you have 1/3 bluffing combos you should bet pot. More than 1/3, it starts the overbet. Less than 1/3, bet should be below potsize. Watch the lipepiv video here about Valuebetting, and he talks more deeper about this. E.g. due to some boards and how it was played, we know that out bluffing range is too tiny, almost 0, that's why in these cases we value bet so thin.
If UTG have AJ, QQ+, his play all make sense. I don't think he can value bet these type of hands unless he thinks hero is a calling station.
I won't try to bluff him off top pair and over pairs. If I do, I would throw a over bet here.
1.2x to 1.5x probably.
Cmon m8 just admit you had the ducks ;)
Only joking.
Best hands to turn into a bluff here are pairs with a Ac or Kc blocker. I.e kt, at, a6.
Here you're hands probably have very little sdv and when he checks river with these deep stacks you know he is not c/raising with the nuts or the nut blocker.
You also block a set which is a big part of his c/calling range on river.
You block AA and KK with a club which is also a big part of his bluff catching range on river as he blocks the nuts.
Regarding sizing I bet around 80-90% pot here as bluff and value. I think 80% achieve's same fold equity as overbet allowing you to bluff for cheaper. Betting 1/2 or 2/3 pot here will result in him heroing you wider as he has better price.
I would start bluffing with with those hands mentioned above on river and maybe add in others pairs with club but don't get too carried away as 22, 44 55 with a club don't block any relevent flushes and if you bluff with these then you are bluffing too much.
The problem with AcT, KcT, Ac6 and others that you mentioned is:
You won't have these flat ranges from BU vs UTG open.
Unless it's suited in some cases (BB fish, another call from fish MP/CO), then your AcXc get more value multiway.
And flat ATo or so vs UTG open just for bluffing with NF blocker is bad imo, and when you hit a pair, you're prob screwed also. Such a reversed implied odds.
My mistake. I didnt properly consider our flatting range pre.
We won't have kto or a6o. However we are 200bb deep with villain so I think we could have some ato combos and some aqo and kqo combos with the A or K of clubs that opted to flat pre instead of 3bet.
The ATo flat might be marginal but kqo and aqo are standard
I appreciate you guys all taking the time to comment on my hand. It gave me a lot to think about. I am going to leave my thoughts and see what you guys think.
In the actual hand I had KdTd. A little off topic but I think my turn call is debatable. I thought that this guy was aggressive enough to be barreling a little too bluff heavy.
Anyways, we get to the river and he checks and I immediately want to turn my hand into a bluff on this river. I realize it is a little contradictory to my reasoning for calling the turn, but instead of winning the pot 50% of the time it seemed appealing to me to try and win as close to 100% as possible and I thought once he checked a pretty huge bet might get me there.
One reason I thought this, and is something that you pointed out, is that it's hard for me to have a lot of bluffs here. First, I don't think many people would be thinking to turn a hand like mine into a bluff. Second, I don't have much air here other than backdoor flush combos on the flop that missed on the river. 89, Q9, 78, KQ is pretty much it.
Usually when you are in a situation where you aren't repping any bluffs an overbet is going to be overkill but i think his player type was more likely to take the, "show me the flush" type mentality and call vs the 70-80% sizing. Also, although AJ or KJ shouldn't be value betting here (I don't think) I didn't want to risk himself using a small bet as an excuse to think I might have been. So, I in my opinion 1.5x was the sweetspot.
I did some work in CRev so I figured I would share the results. Below is the range I gave him by the river. Obvioulsy, we are winning quite a bit with a check vs this range. Vs this, the equity of KT was 51.9% and the ev of a checkback was $19.07.
I assumed (like it seems others do as well) that most if not all of his flushes would have bet the river. I also assumed that some very small percent of the time he might have gone for a blocking/value bet with his sets and came up with the following ev calculation for a 1.5x pot bet. The X-axis is how often he calls with his 1 pair hands that have a club blocker. The y axis is how often he check-calls with sets instead of bets them. Also, I assumed that his AA, KK, and two pair never fold. All of his pairs without the blocker always fold.
Even if he always check calls his sets, we only need him to fold is pair+blocker hands 52% of the time to be slightly more plus ev bluffing.
So what do you guys think of my assumptions and my thoughts? If you think my assumptions are correct, do we get the 52% folds?
Easy fold flop, easy fold turn. Debatable if calling OTb is good or not. I would do it for the purpose of either hitting a set or making moves on boards that hit my range.
I don't know if your assumption that he's betting all flushes on the river is correct. On this run out, I think I like checking a lot of my flushes on the river. Your range looks weak. You 3b AA,KK,QQ, pre. If you flopped a set or had J10, you would be putting in a raise on the flop, and if not on the flop, definitely on the turn.
If I'm villain and sitting with a flush on the river, I'm not sure what hands are in your range that I'm getting 3 streets of value from.
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