Turned flush 10/20 HUNL

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Turned flush 10/20 HUNL

I was check raising a lot in the first 20 mins of the match but over the last 30 mins hadnt really been active. He had seen me c/r fds before (my c/r range is very fd heavy actually) and I had been c/r air a lot at the start but pretty much always shutting down with my air on the turn (he bet and i folded every time) and continuing with my equity hands. Here I have no idea. I feel like his range is bluff catchers, and my range should be a flush a ton here. Given we are 200BB deep I think that makes it more credible he raises the nuts?? But way less credible that he is raising like an 8 high flush. I'm not sure what he can be bluffing with but what do we do? If we do continue are we call call, call fold or shoving?

Full Tilt Poker Game #31688790678: Table Sold (heads up) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:36:35 WET - 2012/12/18 [17:36:35 ET - 2012/12/18]
Seat 1: timekpr ($4,128.25)
Seat 2: Tinkerage ($3,803.25)
timekpr posts the small blind of $10
Tinkerage posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Tinkerage [6d Td]
timekpr raises to $40
Tinkerage calls $20
*** FLOP *** [2d 6s Qd] (Total Pot: $80, 2 Players)
Tinkerage checks
timekpr bets $60
Tinkerage raises to $200
timekpr has 15 seconds left to act
timekpr calls $140
*** TURN *** [2d 6s Qd] [4d] (Total Pot: $480, 2 Players)
Tinkerage has 15 seconds left to act
Tinkerage bets $320
timekpr has 15 seconds left to act
timekpr raises to $1,140

18 Comments

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soggybottoms 12 years, 3 months ago
Call/Call initially seems like the most obvious line to take but it's really hard for me to believe when the Js rolls off on the river that this guy is ever jamming worse than 106dd after you call the turn. Seems like call/fold might be best here but opens up a pretty large can of "here exploit me" if your call/folding freaking flushes. His range = bluffs/flushes. Your range = bluffs/flushes/two pair/35s? Feels fishy call/folding but it makes sense to me. Interesting hand.
WHO-AM-I 12 years, 3 months ago
If you think his turn raising range is so polarized that he's only raising the 18 flush combos that beat you, it'll be tough to come up with enough bluff combos to justify going call-call (jamming is clearly bad if he's only going to fold his bluffs and call with those flush combos). I guess in that case you have to fold.

Having said that, I doubt I'd make those assumptions of someone playing 10-20 HUNL, and I'd probably find a way not to fold in real-time. This could just be bad reasoning, but it seems like such a disaster to bet-fold a hand that's so close to the top of our range, particularly when ranges are wide and players are spazzier. If I have a b3b range on this turn, I think whatever AdX hands I bluff with are balanced with enough bigger flushes that I don't need to include TdXd in that range. I mean, I'm not sure having a b3b range here is even good, I could easily be wrong!

Anyway, absent a good read, I probably begin with a call, planning on calling non-diamond rivers.
Sean Lefort 12 years, 3 months ago
I'm going to have a really tough time finding anything but the call button here. The only situation I might not is if villain is playing extremely straightforward and there's no battling dynamic developed in ever stealing/re-stealing pots.

Curious, what's your CR% been around? Theoretically speaking, I'm pretty sure if I did the math that we're not folding the 4th nuts here ever. He's risking 1140 to win 800... so we want to defend ~41%+ of our {CR->bet turn} range if we're looking to be balanced here (provided we've set up an appropriate range to do so). So unless your opponent is playing exploitatively passively in larger pots in conjunction with hand reading that he "just has to have it" here, I'm not folding flushes on the turn and likely neither the river (although the threshold may lie somewhere around low flushes).

Also, I think we can definitely tank/call turn and represent a range that includes a few single-diamond hands/sets/2prs that are chk/folding river. Ie. we nicely shave off some hands against his raise (and defend appropriately on the turn), and then trim it down even further on the river if he jams and call with flushes.
phil long 12 years, 3 months ago
It does indeed seem absurdly exploitable to muck the T high flush here and call call is most certainly my standard but thinking about how likely I am to have a flush, including all nut flush combos, is he really bluffing this turn? It seems that any bluff combo with equity would be something like an Adk or Ad2 hand but surely flatting the turn is more attractive in their position given that me jamming the turn sucks for them. Am I perceived to never shove this turn? It just seems weird for him to be bluffing here. I can't imagine him having many no equity bluffs like 67ss here. Maybe I just have to call call here and expect enough spazzes to make it +EV? I hadn't seen anything spazzy in the 300 or so hands we had played at this point. He was aggressive but always in either an obvious barrel spot, or when he had equity, or when my range was weak - so basically whenever he should be aggressive. Hadn't seen spazz but everyone has a little bit of that in them at some points i guess.

On a side note, i feel like being balanced/exploitable is far less important in this spot given the rarity of the situation. 200BB deep, mid flush, large raise on the turn. This situation doesn't come up enough for him to exploit, and as I said I do have all Axdd and Kxdd combos then im call/calling. No brainer call down with any flush for like <150BBs too I feel.

I'm very keen for further insights though or flaws in my thought process. Thanks.
Sean Lefort 12 years, 3 months ago
"On a side note, i feel like being balanced/exploitable is far less important in this spot given the rarity of the situation"

Funny because I would actually argue the exact opposite. I think you're correct if the situation is rare because you have a fantastic read that he's not bluffing enough. But if you don't, I think it's incredibly important to look to remain balanced, otherwise your mistakes will be huge. (ie. if you "guess wrong" by playing exploitatively and folding most of your range to his bet, and he happened to be bluffing, he's making soooooo much money from you.) Being balanced isn't just for the future so that he can't adjust and exploit you later, its also very pertinent to the present if we don't have a read. And obviously, you're the only one that can have that read that's strong enough to lay this down. However, given that you posted the hand here, there seems to be an inconsistency there... :)
eq.fest 12 years, 3 months ago
When I first read this hand I thought it was a pretty easy call and a fold on some Q or 6 rivers maybe, and decide we where are in our range on the rest of the cards. However, villain does have some info on our range here, and thus we have some info on villain. When I was going through some game theory lectures I remember having to assume our opponent is going to play his strategy rationally. It really doesnt seem like a rational play of villain to bluff raise here if he knows he is going to be raising into a flush a good portion of the time.
phil long 12 years, 3 months ago
yeh basically i think call, call has to be the default play, anything else comes down to villains perception of our range, if he thinks our range is really strong and is only trying to stack our value range and has no bluffs/semi bluffs then its a fold, but as sean said without knowing that going with the math and call calling is the play.
allwind 12 years, 3 months ago
I just dont quite understand why we dont want to have a 3bet range here in this spot. I mean, people so rarely does it, so most often than not, it is super strong. So merge our strong hands with some bluffs as well. Especially being oop. If I get the numbers correct, then it is just about a little bit more than a pot sized bet left.

Also from 6max, Once they have the nut blocker, they tend to be able to call it off as light as with with TP+ hands. Now I dont have much experience 200bb deep, since those spots dont come up often. But 100-150bb deep this is super normal on 6max 5/10, Stars.
allwind 12 years, 3 months ago
I also would not take it for granted, that villain is aware of all the FD is heros XR range. I mean, people tend to pay attention to the bigger pots more than the small pots. And it does sound like, the XR range is not only FDs but also has other things in it.
phil long 12 years, 3 months ago
Before I respond I want to be sure I am understanding you correctly, I'm a little confused as to what you are advocating? Are you saying we should jam the turn?
allwind 12 years, 3 months ago
Sorry if I expressed my self not too clear. I did not pass english in school.

I am not advocating to jam the turn. I think we should not neglect to have a 3betting range in this spot. The 3betting range does not have to be only jams, it could be like CIB as well. CIB gives us great odds, and we could do this as a pure bluff or with nut/SD outs to call it off or with flushes. It puts great pressure on our opponents, especially if they are playing back at us light. And I do think it sounds like this is a good spot for villain to play back at us. Because in your first line in the thread, you say you were XR a lot during the first 20 min. I get the feeling you have been XR really wide. I think we can conclude, that villain does not know, that your range is FD heavy, because you said you had been XF a lot on the turns and continueing with equity. I think it is a lot more likely villain looks at your XR stat and sees it is insanely high.

If I was villain, and I experienced a person who XR me a ton. I would flat my monsters with position. I would probably raise a lot of turns, as well as call down light. I would look for spots to bluff raise his follow up bet. Now that we are deep, these spots starts to occur more often post flop. I would also be aware, that once my opponent continues 1 more bet, than he usually does, then I would proceed with caution.

I prefer always consider the aggressive option of continueing the hand. I know this is debateable. I know in a lot of spots, against the right opponent, calling can be way better.

You mention you are playing a match. How many tables were you playing, and for how long? How many hands have you totally played with this villain? How did you play your monsters oop on the flop, fast or slow?

In order to determine what I like on the turn. I need to know more. I need information like, how does he perceive hero. What is he expecting hero to do, calling down light, calling and then folding, has villain seen hero call with TP on flushy boards or other lose calls. I am not so much into the level of how does he think, that hero views villain, but that could be a mistake of mine. I just dont feel at the 6max 5/10 games this is the way many villains are thinking on. But I do make notes on it when I see patterns. Is he able to follow through with his bluffs? How does he adjusts to deep stack poker?

I think for now, I like to click it back with a wide range. It sucks when we have air and villain jams. But on the other hand, it also looks like we are trying to suck out on him. If I had been XR a ton to give up on the turn, and I saw a flushy turn, against a floater, then for sure I think this is a good barrel card, for dynamics and how villain likely views hero.
On the other hand, if hero had been jam happy in a lot of spots, and villain was down, then I think it is a great spot to jam for value. In that case I do not think we would behind his calling it off range.

I could be very wrong. Always, the person playing has the better feel and reads than people giving advice. I know myself, I have a unique aggressive style.
phil long 12 years, 3 months ago
Thanks a lot, I appreciate you posting as you have given me a lot to think about. I always enjoy discussing hands with people who have different thought processes or styles to my own as it allows me to critically evaluate other options I had not considered myself. This was very helpful for me and I will try to digest some of your ideas.
allwind 12 years, 3 months ago
Thank You for being positive for my reply. All I want to say. We have an interesting spot. We should never decline to consider why the the aggressive approach could be good. I am not saying RR that turn is best. I am very much in doubt what I like, and calling could easy best in that spot. I also want to thank the others for replying, because as well as it help Phil Long understand why other people sometimes takes a line that seems weird. It also helps me understand other peoples lines.
Brendan Reid 12 years, 2 months ago
should we not be considering the fact that the over sized turn raise by villain dramatically weighs his range to semi bluffs and small flushes that are either scared of action killer + 4 flush rivers or fail to account for many fds in hero flop c/r range? That nut flushes and second nut flushes are more inclined to flat the turn than therefore this is a snap call?
Peter Jennings 12 years, 2 months ago
getting it in on the turn is a pretty big mistake. villain is going to continue on almost every river almost 100% of the time. the times he's bluffing your turn jam pushes him out of the pot. if he has the nuts, you were drawing dead anyways. might as well get that extra bet from his bluffs and just call the turn.

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