Turn Spot I am having disagreement with
Posted by Ryan
Posted by
Ryan
posted in
Mid Stakes
Turn Spot I am having disagreement with
Live 2-5
So this is aganstt a recreational woman. She seems like not much of a poker player, buys in for $200. I sit out for an orbit after she comes in and i come back and she has $300. Dont know what happened
She limps EP
I raise AQss to $25 in CO/HJ, folds to her and she calls
Flop Q83ddd
She donks $25
I call
Turn Jh
She continues $75 into $100 pot, and has around $225-$250 behind
Hero?
I think when you really consider her range, I think folding is not out of the question. I asked a couple friends what they think and so far both said they would continue to the river against her profile. I find myself wanting to fold based on two information points. A) she is two barreling into me, B) she sized up on the turn, and my gut tells me that typically when fish are donking a mid strength top pair/hand as a follow up, they use a smaller sizing.
I broke her range down into what I think is reasonable in flopzilla, and it looks like at the very best it is a breakeven call. But if you drop some of the Q9o from her range, or if she isn't donking this size with QT very often, or possibly never with AdXx, then it clearly becomes a fold. It's also plausible that she has even more flushes then I am giving her credit for, which really really hurts our equity.
Am I just being way too tight here, or am I being reasonable? I think I am correct here, but with two people who are solid in the game disagreeing with me, I feel it's possible I am missing something.
Would be most helpful for feedback from those with some live experience, as I think this is drastically different from an online situation, because I think it's very plausible her range is entirely devoid of bluffs here.
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What makes her "recreational", "not much of a poker player"? With the given information it's rather guessworking, but my gut tends more towards folding than calling (what's our plan for the river?).
If we call turn I’m folding river bet that is sizeable.
What makes her not much of a poker player. A) she’s a woman, B) she sloppily threw down a black chip, some reds, and a $100 bill in a 2-5 game C) she is drinking a beer with her belly showing lol
Of course I’m not saying women can’t be good at poker, but in general I think it’s a safe assumption that a woman playing poker is going to be a recreational 9/10 times, plus all the compounding factors, beer+beer belly, buying in short, etc
Shouldn't she have $175 behind if she started with $300?
I'll assume she started with more, based on your conclusion about her stack. If she did have $175, I don't hate a shove on the turn. However, there is no denying that the spot absolutely sucks. If she is a bad player, this is much more likely to be a bet for protection because she's going to be sad if you bink a diamond. I don't think she is likely to take this line with the NFD. Whoever posted early was right to suggest you don't have a strong read on her, either. If she's decent, then she has disproportionately suited cards and those are disproportionately a flush. You are drawing dead against all of her value.
I think the spot is so close that if BR is a factor at all, it's definitely a fold. You're going to hate your life on the river a lot of the time. You're basically flipping a coin for $150-$300 (depending on how you play the river when you hit an offsuit ace and she shoves or whatever). If your bankroll is less than like $15k, I'm folding all day.
also spots this close, you can always try to talk to the rec? I'm not much of a live player tho, so who knows
Think shoving is a bad option. She had more than 175. Didn’t fix it because it’s not really relevant to the turn spot. Our equity is not good here and def don’t think shoving is an option, even if she did have less money behind....
However, yes talking to her is possible, but kinda strange on the turn while there is still a card to come. Not really the type to talk mid hand like that, but it’s possible you could pick up something doing that. I just prefer to focus on the relevant info and not get distracted by that kinda stuff. Not my strong suit I think, rather just think about the situation, her range, and likely equity of spot.
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