turn sizing Q in 3B pots
Posted by Nick Howard
Posted by
Nick Howard
posted in
High Stakes
turn sizing Q in 3B pots
100bb effective:
pf - open CO, BB 3bets, call.
flop - BB c-bets, call.
turn - BB checks, bet.
-assuming you balance only 1 bet sizing ott, what is that sizing? how much does the sizing you choose depend on texture?
as BB's range depolarizes it makes sense to me that we'd build the pot more geometrically from the turn to the river, lining up for stacks with a polarized range. vs a polarized range it seems better to bet small ott.
if we also consider BB's defending fqcy ott, i think that if he's making a habit of defending at 1-a he's doing something wrong with his range otf (this probably applies more to boards where he has a significant range advantage). it seems like that would incentivize IP to use small bet-sizing, since he's in a situation where his bluffs are printing money. so he would use small sizing at the expense of maybe losing some value by not betting equal fractions ott/otr?
what i understand about building the pot more geometrically is that it forces villain to felt a slightly wider range than if you bet really small one street and jam large on the next. so i guess my main Qs are
-how much does that ^ apply when we move into a model where BB is folding turn too much
-is the amount that BB usually CF's ott incentivizing us to bet small, since our bluffs are printing money .. as opposed to building the pot geometrically and getting villain to felt slightly wider range in theory (which would give us a little more value?)
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You would also want to consider whether or not the Big Blind is likely to play a check raising range, right?
what is geometrically betsize?
'Building the pot geometrically' means a utilising a bet size that is the same ratio of the pot on each street and gets the stacks all in on the river. That allows you to have the maximum number of bluff combinations.
Generally in 3b pots at 100b it's around 50-65% on each street, depending on the size of the open and the 3b.
If you play around a bit it's easy enough to figure out a formula for calculating the ratio of the pot to bet and set up a spreadsheet that can give you precise amounts to bet on each street.
what is the size of the OPEN ,and 3Bet, and the CBET?
Hard to give a sizing bet to use on the turn in your hand description...
Texture and his pre and flop sizing gotta matter a lot here. 1/4-2/3 pot I'd guess, but it will defend on remaining stacks as well.
well we can bet from 1/3 to 2/3 most of the times, depends if we bet on K332r of 7862s
i think we would have a larger subsection of hands that want to use small betsizing on 7862s than k332r. The problem seems to come in accounting for BB's CR counterstrategies if we start to bet too wide of a range.
if it's true that the more our turn small-bet range is protected by 2pair+, the more aggressively we can bet without being exploitable to CRs, then i think it could be worth putting all of our 2pair+ in the small sizing on 7862s, betting often, and dealing with the fact that we are using a more unfavorable sizing for our 2pair+ in order to protect our marginal pairs.
I think it's somewhat relatable to what sauce was saying in one of his video threads about the EV gained from using a small c-bet sizing OTF from the more unpolarized hands in the range making up for the EV lost by the more premium hands that are forced to protect the line.
While texture will play a factor in determining your bet sizing, it's imperative to consider how both your RANGES relate to the texture of the board.
I understand your logic, but once again it depends more on your ranges. For example, assuming that the Villain has a more depolarized range, but if the vast majority of your range can't bet big without making his range too strong, then you're going to need to size your bets down. In other words, if a very large part of your range is semi-strong hands instead of nutted hands than you might need to make your bet smaller than geometric pot size. But you're correct in the sense that if the BBs range is either very strong hands which will check-raise or very weak hands which will fold to a small bet, then betting small is the best size.
So I think this is where you start to get confused and your analysis falls short. While it's almost certainly true that the BB shouldn't be defending close to 1-a, this doesn't mean that we should be betting small OR that we're "printing money" with our bluffs. I think your confusion stems from thinking that since all the Button's bluffs will be +EV as a bet that they're higher EV than checking. The reason the BB should check-fold at a frequency less than 1-A is that the equilibrium will be found there because the Buttons bluffs will ALSO be +EV as checks. The Button will NOT be betting ALL his bluffs on the turn, he'll be checking back some of them to bluff on the river OR that will get there on the river, etc... therefore they're higher EV as a check.
None-the-less, when you bet smaller the Villain's frequency of defending on the turn will INCREASE -- not past 1-a, but just because you bet smaller doesn't suddenly mean that you're getting a cheaper price on your bluffs because the Villain will also almost always defend more. If it's GTO correct for you to use a larger bet size, then, by definition, it ALSO must mean that your BLUFFS are HIGHER EV with the larger bet size as well. This doves tail into your comment,
From a GTO standpoint, ALL hands at ALL points must be played in a way that maximizes their EV. In other words, you'd never play a hand "at the expense of losing value" in order to make another hand more EV. If you should use a smaller bet with your nutted hands to protect your marginal hands, it's only because it's the HIGHEST EV line for your nutted hands because your opponent will be raising your marginal hands.
This is absolutely correct.
As explained above the BB is NOT folding too much when he's defending less than 1-a.
But I don't think I answered your question. I'll try and do that in a bit.
Another issue here is that CO called a 3b and a cb to get to this point in the hand. Even if he has a +EV bluff now, that doesn't mean he has a +EV exploit to play a weaker hand on an earlier street to get into this situation, especially if OOP has a fairly high betting frequency on the turn himself. I think IP can bet this spot fairly often, but not more than 40-60%, otherwise he'll be exploitable by XR.
I think you're thinking too much about sizing and not enough about frequencies. If OOP is playing something like 'call .8(1-A), otherwise fold' then IP should bet small with everything for semibluff/protection, at least unless the board is very dry. On the other hand if OOP is playing 'call .7(1-A), XR .2(1-A)' then betting for protection gets a lot more expensive because for a half pot protection bet IP cedes a lot of EV around 13% of the time when OOP XR. I'd be trying to play a strategy more similar to the second one than the first one if I'm OOP and my range has substantial EV to showdown and/or improve on the river, for example even AQo on K53hh7c has enough EV if it goes flop b/c turn x/x that I'd want to show up with some stuff when I check turn.
On my phone now, but what you should do is come up with ranges for both players on the turn for 2 different board textures -- ranges on the turn should be different on the turn based on flop play.
thanks sant missed that first post of yours somehow.. very helpful
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