turn my hand into bluff OTR ?

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turn my hand into bluff OTR ?

BB: $100
UTG: $109.50 (Hero)
HJ: $104
CO: $108.40
BN: $174.95
SB: $137.40
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T T
Hero raises to $3, HJ folds, CO raises to $9, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls $6
Flop ($19.50) 9 8 J (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $12.85, Hero calls $12.85
Turn ($45.20) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks
River ($45.20) 4 (2 Players)

Villain plays pretty tight (20/17 , 3b co = 3% )

OTR i pretty much have the bottom of my range . Should i turn my hand into a bluff and check/shove , considering he is himself at the top of his range when he bets the river ? (not sure he bets ak here )

10 Comments

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DanDanDanDan 10 years, 9 months ago

Check shove river won't be too credible (especially if he has any xs blocker), as it'll be assumed you'd have CR'd the flop or lead the river with value or flushdraw. One may not be true but the other probably would've been. Seems like a check fold.


atton 10 years, 9 months ago

Flop is close, I don't see too much bluff on this particular flop along with his nitty 3bet %.
The main reason to flat his 3bet preflop is to setmine and the smaller reason is that we will be able to ch/c some flops, which doesn't hit his range (it is very hard not hitting when having 3% 3bet though). This flop hits our range fairly hard, so I don't think he will cbet very often, and if our outs hit we wont make too much money. And we fear some cards (A,K,spade), and not every out we have are 100% clear outs. And when he cbets this flop as bluff(mostly semi bluffs, sometimes with like AsQx KQo if he turned them into bluff) I don't think he will giveup on safe turns nor bluffing on cards when we hit.
I don't see how this guy could exploit us if we "overfold" here.

atton 10 years, 9 months ago

Oh and the river:
He mostly ch/back his AA,KK, and some rare bluffs, and he wont fold those to ordinary betsizing, nor bluffing on this "safe" river, because our range doesn't have any air, maybe the bottom of our range here is exactly TT. And he can easily have some blocker AsAx,KsKx basically and our xr won't show succes that often. So ch/fold river.

Nick Howard 10 years, 9 months ago

folding flop is like quit poker bad imo

bluffing this hand OTR isn't going to be profitable unless you want to consider very large overbets.  If you're worried about not having enough bluffs it might mean you're flop x/c'ing range is not the most effective distribution of hands.  At first glance i see KQcc, AQss, AKss, AQcc, AKcc ... all of which can probably argue a flop x/c.  

it might actually make sense to fold some KJs or something otf and replace it with some of the ^ hands i just mentioned .. it doesn't seem to serve your rnge to have such a large subsection of bluffcatchers on a flop that hits you so hard, when you can substitute them with gutters/overs w/ bdfd


atton 10 years, 9 months ago

So what is the reason to call flop? Why are we calling there?


Nick Howard 10 years, 9 months ago

i can't imagine how it's not +EV to call an OESD (albeit it 1 card), with your 2 set outs being live to SD and win a signficant % of the time.  I don't even care if he's never bluffing flop .. that just means we should have more implieds when we drill


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