Turn Decision With Over Pair

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Turn Decision With Over Pair

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) MP: $32.84 (Hero)
CO: $30.22
BN: $24.39
SB: $21.39
BB: $26.86
UTG: $30.57
UTG: 21/13/4 over 140 hands
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is MP with J J
UTG raises to $0.87, Hero calls $0.87, CO calls $0.87, BN folds, SB calls $0.77, BB folds
Flop ($3.73) 8 3 3
SB checks, UTG bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75, CO folds, SB folds
when UTG bets into 3 other players in this flop it seems strong and I am only calling in the chance that he check on the turn or improve.
Turn ($9.23) 8 3 3 2
UTG bets $5.50, Hero folds
When he goes a bit smaller here I think it's going to be weighted towards QQ+ trying to get value from 99+, if he has 99 or TT then he would be betting large to discourage two overs to float again. Is this nitty or ??
Final Pot UTG wins $8.81
Rake is $0.42

6 Comments

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runitslow 9 years, 6 months ago

Ran some equilab tests:

I ran a couple ranges and basically it's a call as long as we assume he can do this with AK(suited or not). If you think he can then it's a call as we are 50/50 to 56/44 favorite.

conoval 9 years, 6 months ago

My calculation:
Pot odds 5.5/20.23=27%
Range AA-88,33 equity 37%
Range AA-JJ, 88,33 equity 26%

Why "if he has 99 or TT then he would be betting large"? He can have smaller sizing since he want keep pot smaller and this sizing enough for protection against over cards.

Almost zero call or + call , but it is only mathematically.

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