Turn Decision With Over Pair
Posted by DontRunItOnce
Posted by DontRunItOnce posted in Low Stakes
Turn Decision With Over Pair
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
MP: $32.84 (Hero)
CO: $30.22
BN: $24.39
SB: $21.39
BB: $26.86
UTG: $30.57
CO: $30.22
BN: $24.39
SB: $21.39
BB: $26.86
UTG: $30.57
UTG: 21/13/4 over 140 hands
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is MP with
J
J
, , , , ,
Flop
($3.73)
8
3
3
, , , ,
when UTG bets into 3 other players in this flop it seems strong and I am only calling in the chance that he check on the turn or improve.
Turn
($9.23)
8
3
3
2
,
When he goes a bit smaller here I think it's going to be weighted towards QQ+ trying to get value from 99+, if he has 99 or TT then he would be betting large to discourage two overs to float again. Is this nitty or ??
Final Pot
UTG wins $8.81
Rake is $0.42
Rake is $0.42
Loading 6 Comments...
I wouldnt fold right here for 1/2 pot bet. I wonder what you wanna call here if not JJ when you would have 3bet QQ+-
Yeah, no way Im folding this. Im usually folding the river on a brick
Ran some equilab tests:
I ran a couple ranges and basically it's a call as long as we assume he can do this with AK(suited or not). If you think he can then it's a call as we are 50/50 to 56/44 favorite.
I think we need his flopcbet% and his turncbet% to see if this is a call or not.
My calculation:
Pot odds 5.5/20.23=27%
Range AA-88,33 equity 37%
Range AA-JJ, 88,33 equity 26%
Why "if he has 99 or TT then he would be betting large"? He can have smaller sizing since he want keep pot smaller and this sizing enough for protection against over cards.
Almost zero call or + call , but it is only mathematically.
Well played.
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