Turn CR vs PFR, strong ranges
Posted by Nick Howard
Posted by Nick Howard posted in Mid Stakes
Turn CR vs PFR, strong ranges
SB: MadAgenda: $382.05
BB: VernonH: $145.70
UTG: CLICKBUTTON9: $203
HJ: daymom: $200
CO: SiKCalL_A7: $200
CLICKBUTTON9 folds, daymom raises to $5, SiKCalL_A7 folds, ssljvr folds, MadAgenda calls $4, VernonH calls $3
I'm trying to construct a good CR range OTT. I think this is a texture where we both hit pretty hard, so I expect villain to defend very aggressively. Here is the range I gave him, it's about a 1:1 range of value:bluffs:
AA-JJ,99,66,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,A8s,A6s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T8s
(A8s-A2s are FD only).
This range is 27.5% overpair+, 21%OESDorFD. So it's pretty easy for villain to defend vs CR >50% of the time if defends even a small % of his TP hands (AJ is probably a better call than QQ anyway).
I think my range is probably stronger, since my SB calling range is significantly tighter than if i were BB here. i'll have a much higher concentration of sets than him, esp since i don't make a habit of trying to play a flop raising range HU on rainbow.
With stronger ranges on both sides, it makes me think my bluffraising hands might need to be stonger(?). Or maybe they're just naturally stronger and this is what also causes IP to defend vs CR more aggressively? I thought KT was a good candidate b/c my low-end outs are pretty tainted in a c/c line.
Based on the distribution of HJ's turn calling range, it seems like this is probably a good spot to bluff river on (Q,J?9,7,6,5,4,3,2)non-clubs. In hand I thought bluffing most rivers would actually be pretty losing. My river bluffs also do better if we assume he plays some sort of turn RRR range with sets. It seems like even with all his sets intact, he'd have to felt almost all of his overpairs on those rivers to be calling enough (and even then i don't think he'd still need some TP felts b/c i'm getting a pretty good river jamming price).
I guess my conclusion is that i think i might be overly paranoid of bluffraising turns and following thru at solid fqcys on boards where both ranges are very strong.
Another thing that seems sort of counterintuitive to raising into a v strong range is that i seem to be able to raise a hand like 66 more safely when i expect villain to be defending turn more aggressively ... since he'll be required to felt wider OTR the more combos he defends OTT? Basically i think it's too rigid to use a model like "villain defends at 1-a to turn CR, and 1-a to river barrel" to try to get an idea of how many combos he needs to felt here. It seems like it's going to vary a lot based on the composition of his turn range ... and here i feel like he will be defending vs turn CR a lot.
My hunch would be that he is supposed to defend vs turn CR more aggressively than on most textures .. but regardless of what he's supposed to do, i think it's pretty easy for him to make stubborn calls vs CR with the turn c-bet range i gave him.
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