TT vs river cbet in 3b pot

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TT vs river cbet in 3b pot

BN: $64.18 (Hero)
SB: $81.82
BB: $96.72
UTG: $26.57
HJ: $54.91
CO: $62.10
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.12, SB folds, BB raises to $4, Hero calls $2.88
Flop ($8.75) 9 8 3 (2 Players)
BB bets $5, Hero calls $5
Turn ($18.75) 9 8 3 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $9.50, Hero calls $9.50
River ($37.75) 9 8 3 5 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $18.50, Hero folds
Final Pot
BB wins $35.57

Hi,

Villain has played 22/16 with a 3b of 5% over 175 hands, I'm guessing he's a weaker player. 

It didn't seem very likely to me that he would bet so small if he was bluffing. Then again, I only need to win one in four. Are there any good ways to estimate what his range on the river is?

Against a good regular I would almost never fold tens here. Should I fold more against this player with the limited amount of information I have on him?

Thanks

12 Comments

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Nadav Bar Orian 11 years, 10 months ago

Without Villain's Triple Barrel range in 3bet pot I can't really tell what is the correct move, we have to know 

5% is his 3bet from blinds against BTN open steal? do you have a sense of his triple barrel bluff in 3bet pot after btn steal? that's the mosti important factor here.. without reads i'd fold but be very sad about it


Gaby Foster 11 years, 10 months ago

I had no particular reads and my small samplesize of 175 is way too small to draw any conclusions other than that he's likely not a regular. His 3b of 5% is from all positions combined, then again a very small sample.

Would be interesting to know how close this is to calling. Anyone who would call here? What would we do with JJ? 

lwe 11 years, 10 months ago

jam as a bluff to get overpairs to fold but i think thats a little too ambitious and probably a lot worse than just folding or calling.

PutMyRobeOnRITE 11 years, 10 months ago

Assuming villain has a tight 3-bet range like this AA-99,AKs-AQs,KQs,K7s-K6s,Q7s,98s,AKo, and proceeds to bet the river with all Top Pair or Better, and All the busted diamonds you will be -1.31 in EV here, JJ will be +EV 10.82....

Nadav Bar Orian 11 years, 10 months ago

I don't get why calling is -ev against bb 3bet range? you can't expect a better board to call with.. why did you call his 3bet, call 2 streets and fold river? WM2k, I don't agree with you at all without valueable information regarding villain..


James Hudson 11 years, 10 months ago
I don't think it's necessarily clear cut one way or another but you're allowed to make decisions on every street and I feel like looking at the hand and saying "I'm going to call 3 streets with this hand" is a pretty flawed way to play. Someone who's only 3 betting 5% (if that's actually accurate) is likely an opponent who's both weaker and has exploitable leaks and if we can find some of those leaks and exploit them then we certainly should be doing that. That being said, we only have a small sample on villain so we should take most of his stats with a grain of salt...



Chael Sonnen 11 years, 10 months ago

I'm kind of confused as though which value hand he bets so small on the river.
99/88/33 and maybe/probably 76 just bomb the river. 98 kinda makes sense for him as a blocker.

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