TT OOP in sqeezed Pot
Posted by isnurgeld
Posted by
isnurgeld
posted in
Low Stakes
TT OOP in sqeezed Pot
Blinds: $0.08/$0.16 (6 Players)
BN: $12.59
SB: $29.33
BB: $20.52
UTG: $16.15
MP: $18.48 (Hero)
CO: $9.16
SB: $29.33
BB: $20.52
UTG: $16.15
MP: $18.48 (Hero)
CO: $9.16
Preflop
($0.24)
Hero is MP with
T
T
, , , , , ,
Flop
($4.64)
2
Q
6
, ,
Turn
($8.62)
2
Q
6
5
, ,
Not sure at which point we can find the fold button.
Villain is a semi-reg with 24/16 with 8% 3bet overall. Preflop and on the Flop feels too weak to fold.
On the turn I convinced myself that he is not bluffing enough, but pretty unsure if we are commited here.
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You're never pot committed unless you have too much equity vs the value range with no bluffs to fold and when you're looking at 2 outs vs that range you definitely don't have too much equity to put this in the muck if you don't give villain enough bluffs. From an equilibrium perspective I think this specific might call it off occasionally particularly holding no heart (although with backdoor flushes this unblocking effect isn't as prevalent) but it's going to be really thin given it's lack of equity when behind and might even just be a fold so if you suspect villain isn't bluffing enough then it's more than fine to ditch this kind of hand. Also in terms of what you're calling down here, yes TT feels like it's somewhat high up in your range but it's much better to call down here with a hand like 44 or AhTh that are still ahead of air but have outs to improve vs value hands and this is a mistake a lot of people make where they call down linearly from their best showdown hand to their cut off point when really it's about your equity vs the betting range.
It is if Villain is very skilled so he can have a lot of overcards. But at NL16 I don't think regs are bluff heavy in this spot.
I would fold OTT
If I see correctly, villain is left with about ~1.50$ here after his turn bet, right? That seems pretty off to me and together with his below 100bb-starting stack, I would happily assume that this is not a very strong player.
I think your line is just fine. On the flop, I agree that our hand is just too good and I would assume that this player type shuts down often enough after a continuation bet on the flop so we reach showdown fairly often. On the turn, you need to be good about 1/3 of the time, and I don't think that villain would find that many bluff combos on this board.
At this stack depth (78bb), your implied odds are bad. TT flops an overpair 1 time in 4. isnurgeld What is your assessment of your pools squeeze range here? Mine is very heavily weighted towards JJ+, AKo, AKs and AQs in this exact dynamic. TT/99 is played as a call by the BTN the majority of the time in this dynamic.
This seems very close preflop TBH. We don't know what CO is going to do. In my pool, I muck TT pre here. If you pool is squeezing wider than mine, then expanding to TT will probably be ok.
As a side note, do we ever really want to have a calling range here preflop with this effective stack depth and a player to act between us and the squeezer?
Preflop with 2 weaker players here, I think calling is going to be +EV and it is somewhat unlikely that CO will backraise here. Flop call seems fine and folding turn as people aren't going to find enough bluffs to justify calling down this wide and TT isn't even that high in your range.
My range will be 99-JJ KJs QJs ATs-AQs maybe AQo. I have to many Qx to call villian flop bet and have JJ. In NL16 i can defend JJ vs flop bet and fold 99-TT.
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