TT in 4B pot, low board

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TT in 4B pot, low board

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $63.87
SB: $67.59
BB: $75.37 (Hero)
UTG: $46.17
MP: $50.00
CO: $68.47
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BB with T T
2 folds, CO raises to $1.28, BN folds, SB calls $1.03, Hero raises to $6.46, CO raises to $13.25, SB folds, Hero calls $6.79
Flop ($27.78) 6 4 4
Hero checks, CO bets $7.92, Hero calls $7.92
Turn ($43.62) 6 4 4 7
Hero checks, CO checks
River ($43.62) 6 4 4 7 3
Hero bets $6.99, CO raises to $47.30 and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot CO wins $55.60
Rake is $2.00

Having trouble analyzing this hand as to whether I should've played differently.

Pre - I don't mind the squeeze, but I don't have any solid reads on either opponent or many hands (25 hands on CO and 6 on SB), so not sure if I should just be defending in this situation and squeezing when I have more info?
Only have $7 to call into $21 against the 4B so not folding with 3:1.

Flop - Think I'm happy with floating. Villain obviously has more 4x in range and over pairs to my TT, but at the same time has a lot of continuation bets with worse.

River - My thought process at the time was 'if I lead small A high might hero call and if villain shoves I'm definitely behind'. But looking back I think such a small bet just looks really weak and gives villain the chance to bluff shove his weaker holdings along with shoving his 4X / rivered flushes / over pairs.

Any hep would be appreciated.

5 Comments

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HawksWin 4 years, 5 months ago

Preflop seems fine.

Flop seems fine.

Turn kind of feels like a jam to me. I can't see his 4b range being too much wider than AA/KK/QQ/AKs/AKo/AQs and maybe A5/A4. Neither one of you will hit that board often at all. AKcc/AQcc/AKhh/AQhh are all still in range and I can see them checking here. He can easily be betting most of his range on the flop. So we have 18 combos of overpairs, two combos of trips (if he 4b A4s), 20 combos of AK/AQ. 6 FD combos of AK/AQ/A5 can call and put us in a dominating position. We will for sure have fold equity. We will have somewhere between 18 to 25% equity vs the entire range.

Poker_Cam 4 years, 5 months ago

Jamming turn in this spot isn't something I've played around with too much, but I do like the thought behind it. Think it's something I'll look into.

MatoStar 4 years, 5 months ago

Okay, lets divide into theory and exploitative parts:

Theory:
Preflop: You can actually jam some % of the time, if he ever folds AK,JJ or if he 4b/f KQ, its nice for us, folding is out of the question, mostly calling. Solver also prefers to call with almost any pair you have squeezed. Calling even 65s+,ATs+

Flop: mixed strategy - donking 1/4 with almost all pairs at some frequency. Your exact hand is 43% donk. If he jams, we have 0.01ev to call, however, in case we have TcTx, we do have 4.29ev. 9c9x has 0.01 ev and without a club, its -6.64ev - thats pretty interesting! Same applies for 88; 77 are bet/fold either way.

Turn: the EV of our hand has increased drastically from 10.74ev (before checking) to 28.86. Donking 25.20% of our range for 1/4. Pure bets are 65s,Tc9c,9c8c and sometimes FDs. This hand is bet at 10%.

River: solver prefers 2/3- shove option with AK, KK and busted FDs. TT,JJ,QQ,66,77,76s,87s are somewhere in between. TT are only shoving 15% of the time. Otherwise its pure x/c. Btw solver would bet/fold your combo if you bet so small, but would call if just check and he shoves. Thats in a contradiction with your assumptions: you expect in this bet/fold line more bluffs than if you would check and he bets.

Please take all these points above with a pinch of salt, since its calculated for 100bb effective. (sorry for that, but I think it may be more useful in terms of universality)

Explo part

Preflop: calling should be the best, we arent incentivized to shove at some frequency, because he isnt bluffing nearly enough. Maybe if we have a read on him that he bet/folds AJ or KQ (AK)

FLOP: Now it gets interesting. But probably for a simplification, we can just check our range as we do on almost any board (its kinda hard to recognize all board textures where the ev of donking is slightly higher - too much effort for too low gains. We can expect a range bet pretty often and given the low spr, he needs only 28.5% equity. AKo has 25.45% vs TT. On the other hand we usually get called by QQ+ (so it kinda isolate ourselves only vs better hands).
However, we can exploit this by raising all of our bluffs which are dominated by his AK region. In case his range consist of AK and QQ+, we do have 44% fold equity. Thats an autoprofit!
Yeah, opponents will adjust, but once you see that they bet/call AK, it usually means till lowstakes that they do that 100% of the time. From this point, we are no longer incentivized to have a raising range (we are underdog even with QQ vs QQ+, AK). So to summarize, I wouldnt have a raising range vs more aggro player. Against tight reg/nit, I would be more bluff-heavy with my raises to target his AK.

TURN: probably still not deviating from standard checking approach. If he decides to shove, I would go player by player, in case we have no reads, I would rely on population tendencies. Based on what I have seen so far in this pool, do I expect enough bluffs to justify calling here? On pokerstars and winamax till nl25, I would make an exploitative fold.

River: Same applies as for the turn. Vs more aggro reg, I dont mind x/calling, shoving is not bad either. Vs more tight/nitty guys, I would bet/fold for 1/6 of the pot or so, since I dont expect to get re-bluffed/bluff-raised.

For your play: I think its decent, maybe I would go slightly bigger OTR given the SPR, but thats subtle.

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