I would also expect him to shove turn with most of his good hands, so this seems to be a good bluffing spot on the K river at first. Seems like a classic nuts+air vs bluffcatchers situation, question is how bluffcatch-happy he is.
I'm not sure about valuebetting with Kx though, probably it's fine because we don't expect to be beaten often. Anyways, I think you will have a lot of 98, 4x, sets, but still more than enough possible bluffs on the river, so his bluffcatch is not unreasonable.
I am not familiar at all with his sb cc range, but he should have a really narrow range OTR after this turn if he's a reg, which means it is very played dependant if someone will overcall, or overfold.
With these said, If i wouldn't want to overbluff, I would start by not bluffing with Asxs.

can you elaborate more about your image?

Hi,
I'm not playin those limits, but i theorytically struggle with weak SD and bluffcatchin regions. So i could tell bullshit but i'm open to debate.
For the hand, i think the play is fine imo, with this turn and blockernuts river. But the action is good maybe not the reason.

Maybe...
U bet too much with those fuckin hands: "i'll making fold what i beat and gettin call by better."
1) How often i should bet my draws proportionally to my made hands?
2) How often i'm gonna hit my draws propotionally to my frequency?

I think u often check one street here with some madehands for bluffcatch. Because it's better to be vs his bettin range (w/+bluffs) than his callin range. Exemple :88-TT? If not, i think u are not maximising ur EV with some hands.

OTT: Hands like QQ- could checkback to call river, if not, u often checkback/shutdown on K river. So Vilain will expect u shutdown some made hands on one street.
So ur 3 barrel range for value is not that wide.

1) optimal bluff frequency, u must try to arrive river with a perfect balance range.
alpha x Value hands = bluffs hands
alpha = 50% when PSB so 2/3 value and 1/3 bluffs

So if u arrive river with more than 1/3 of missdraws, u gonna have too much bluffs in ur 3barrel range or u must checkback/fold with some of them which it sucks...
If u open 600 combos on BTN, u could see than u gonna hit at least one made hands +/-32% (cfr crev). it gives 14% only for backdoorFD+overcards. So i think in general bettin more than 55% could suck.
So we are agree that if u add some AK and gutshot or straight draw, u have too much draws but with decent equity.

2) Even if u have a decent equity overall, how often u gonna realise it by only 3 barrelin?
I'm struggle to see if it's correct to say that if i have an overall equity with my draws = X% and that my proportion of draws is > X% than it's a kind of autosuicide.
I've should better to split some of those hands in some other ranges to keep some % draws < X%
Like checkback, checkraise, bet which is gonna involve +/- the same amount than 3 barrel. but not generate the same FE.
or u could simply checkbackdown coz u have some SD.

So i think here is the play is good because of the turns out. Otherwise in general, bettin too much for protection ur weak SD value hands instead to try to have the cheapest SD and turn medium hands into bad bluffs is not the right play.

GL

What is bad about his call down? Maybe he thinks You wont value bet thinly enough when there are 4 to a straight on board, and if he believes that, his reasoning for calling is legit. you block 89 which is great and there is nothing wrong about your play, but you can exploit a station by underbluffing river.

test

a few things: 1, I'm not sure about your flop bet strat as it seems ur polar and sb ranges are unique as they contain a lot of QJo KJo T9s A8s Q9s type hands that all miss this board. Its a lot of hands that aren't strong enuf to 3bet but aren't weak enuf to 3bet either. He cud 3bet hands like 54s 64s 75s but won't call them as they are too weak. Therefore, he misses this board a lot and will have trouble defending enuf versus a 30-50% pot bet. He will be forced to float a lot of Q9s type hands or KJ high and that leaves him vulnerable to double barrels just due to his range construction pre flop (thats why sb calling ranges are tough to play). So if you bet instead like $9-12, i think this would be better.
Regardless, on turn, I think given ur larger and more polar sizing, his calling range is now stronger and i think A8s is clearest bluff you have.
On river, I'm not sure, how good/bad it is is dependent on assumptions a lot. if he is bad reg, a lot of them might think 'oh if i call turn, i gotta call blank rivers.' but if he is a guy who jams all his good hands on turn, and on river doesn't realize how weak his range is now and will fold weakish bluffcatchers thinking they aren't strong enuf to call on this scary board, then it works great.
From a GTO perspective, id say having the 8s and As is fairly bad bc having As blocks his lighter flop floats and lighter turn calls (A2ss, A8ss A9ss, ATss, A5ss,A3ss, T8ss, as well as 87s and 88). It does block 98 but still is bad blocker.

I made fast sim. Not sure if I put ranges right, I am not working that long with crev.
I gave him a realistic range which I think most ppl in the pool are playing.
22-77, sometimes slowplays w overpairs( but rlly i rarely see that but sometimes ppl call here w99) QTs,JTs,T9s,ATo,A9o,A7s-ATs,KQ,KJ and very few 67s,89s

Seems like my flop cbet shows profit.

You can group together turns and rivers, but you have to include every turn and river, otherwise the three doesn't run.

It's extremely time consuming but you learn a lot

I like it. River is probably the least +EV street of the hand but it's fairly difficult for you to arrive with enough bluffs here and so you'll need to bluff combos like this at least sometimes.

Flop is reasonable because many broadways missed, turn you pick up a strong semibluff. Kx should be too thin to shove river, I think you'll need something like 73+.

seems like a rly nice over bet turn spot imo (this would be a spot I would use that sizing somewhat frequently)

Flop sizing is too big no need to bet more then 1/3-1/2p.

Not sure i like turn and river, he pretty much doesnt fold anything ott that called flop so youre likely overbluffing betting every single fd, combo draw.If you`re barreling this you probably are barreling all of the 82ss, T8ss-A8ss, A9ss, + 8,9hh,dd combos as well and then some, so if anything you end up with way too many bluffs on the river which makes this one of the worst ones having the As.

Villain being a station sucks as well.