Triple-barrel bluff with Q9s
Posted by belrio42
Posted by
belrio42
posted in
Low Stakes
Triple-barrel bluff with Q9s
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (4 Players)
BB: $72.78 (Hero)
CO: $31.82
BN: $30.96
SB: $31.34
CO: $31.82
BN: $30.96
SB: $31.34
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BB with
Q
9
, , , , ,
BTN is loose/passive rec. SB is LAG reg. I raised to isolate the rec. I sometimes just check here.
Flop
($5.50)
K
T
3
,
Flop is good for my range. BTN when limp/calling should have mostly pocket pairs and low suited connectors. Occasionally some weak broadway-type hands.
Turn
($10.56)
K
T
3
8
,
I pick up some equity on the turn, so I barrel. If he jams, I think I have enough equity to call.
Say, if he jams 33,T8s,QdJd,QhJh,Ad9d,Ah9h,Jd9d,Jh9h,Ad8d,Ah8h,Ad7d,Ah7h,Ad6d,Ah6h,Ad2d,Ah2h,KTo,T8o
I still have 27% equity.
So, I'm almost getting the right price to call
Say, if he jams 33,T8s,QdJd,QhJh,Ad9d,Ah9h,Jd9d,Jh9h,Ad8d,Ah8h,Ad7d,Ah7h,Ad6d,Ah6h,Ad2d,Ah2h,KTo,T8o
I still have 27% equity.
So, I'm almost getting the right price to call
River
($26.28)
K
T
3
8
8
,
All the draws missed. I can't think of many worse hands in my range (only J9s, and maybe 97s). So I go for the triple barrel.
What do you think of my line?
Loading 19 Comments...
I am ok with the play preflop, flop and turn although loose/passive players tend to be call happy and you wont get as much fold equity against them as against other opponents. On the river I would give up because you block some of the obvious draws such as QJ and stubborn AQ or J9 or T9 of hearts.
Also he can have lots of value hands that can call you such as Kx, KK, KT, T8, 33, TT
What about shove turn? Yeah it should be 2.5x pot but this would apply max pressure vs a marginal holdings, as Villain should have and at the same time when called you realize your equity.
I'm starting to get into bluffing and plays like this more. So much fun and cropping villain's decisions down to fold/call can be a beautiful thing in the right spots.
I'm not sure a shove for 2.5x pot makes sense. Let's assume villain gets to the turn with any pair and any flush draw. So his range might be something like:
88-22,K6s-K2s,T7s+,QdTd,Qd9d,Jd9d,Qd8d,Jd8d,Ad7d,Jd7d,9d7d,8d7d,Ad6d,9d6d,8d6d,7d6d,Ad5d,7d5d,6d5d,Ad4d,6d4d,5d4d,Ad3d,5d3d,4d3d,Ad2d,KTo-K8o,QTo,JTo,T8o+
That's 125 combos
He calls off the shove with sets, two pair and top pair + FD, and 9d7d.
8d8s, 8d8c, 8s8c, 3h3s, 3h3c, 3s3c, Ts8s, Tc8c, 9d7d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Ks3s, Kc3c, Kd2d, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc, KsTh, KsTc, KcTh, KcTs, Kd8s, Kd8c, Ks8d, Ks8c, Kc8d, Kc8s, Th8d, Th8s, Th8c, Ts8d, Ts8c, Tc8d, Tc8s
That's 35 combos, or 28% of his range. This basically meets the MDF, which is (1 / 3.5) or 28.5%.
So, I force villain to play almost perfectly, which is not a good idea.
Besides, I can't think of many other hands in my range which will shove for 2.5x pot. So this play will reduce the EV of my entire range.
TruthS33ka I like the idea of an overbet on the turn, but not a shove. 1.25x - 1.4x pot will accomplish essentially the same thing as a shove, and since it is the turn you don't need to be worried about realizing your equity as if villain calls you see the river regardless. If villain calls the overbet, you can give up when you brick the river and jam when you hit as I'd expect villain to call the river once he calls a turn overbet, so it wouldn't make a ton of sense to bluff the river if you whiff
'almost' matters. That would be a disaster if he would raise(shove) on turn because you have to fold, and its not even close. To call his shove you need 29%, 30% if we include rake and you calculated your equity at 27%.
So I think there are two good approach there:
-bet big enough that we can call if he raises
-check/call
Betting 'normal' sizing only allows him to kick us from pot.
You're correct that I'm not getting exactly the right price to call (especially if we include rake). So, maybe I should have bet slightly bigger on the turn. I didn't do the exact math in-game, but it seemed to me that 75% pot ought to be close enough.
However, there's also one disadvantage to betting too big on turn: if I'm not careful, he won't have enough left behind to generate fold equity on the river.
Recreationals love to bluffcatch in spots like that when so many draws bricks so I think its clear give up on river if you miss. Especially with that low stack to pot ratio it would be really hard to make him fold Tx... Usually in spots like that you should either use super large sizing or small as exploit to make him fold busted draws with higher cards. Though I would still give up 100% river there as betting small looks very suspicious with that SPR.
His stack size alone makes me want to check/evaluate this turn.
Checked scenario with PokerSnowie
Preflop: PokerSnowie prefers checking by 0.1 EV over raising to pot
Turn: PokerSnowie gives betting and checking equal EV, but raises to 0.5 pot. When PokerSnowie raises 1/2 pot it gives checking and all in on the river the same EV
River Checking is preferred here over betting (0.33 EV difference)
Thanks.
I've not used Pokersnowie, but I'm not following the sequence of actions when you say "raising to 0.5 pot" on the turn. Who raises to 0.5 pot on the turn?
Meant that if PokerSnowie raises he suggests 0.5 pot sized bet.
Ah, ok. Thanks.
So when isolating with weak holdings OOP like this you need to put a ton of attention on player tendencies and handread very well. Also there are a ton of things to play around with, like bet sizes for example, cbetting 1/3 pot or smaller or c/c and if he checks back put a ton of pressure on him turn and river.
It is also important to start thinking on future streets when you are on the flop and manipulate potsizes and ranges to more comfortable once. I really hate the idea of b/c the turn vs pasive players in this spot so something need to be played differently imo (different betsize).
DO not get into GTO traps where you think "bottom of range I have to bluff" vs weak players that you do not need to balance vs. It will be much more profitable for you to think "what is this rec range on the river, how often will he call/fold?" and just exploit that. In this spot you are blocking a lot of draws like AQ, QJ BDFD and I believe it will be a very marginal bluff on the river (at best), esp since you might fold out Tx on the turn with that big size.
If this villain is loose passive id prefer betting 1/3 pot flop and turn (bigger if I hit the flush or straight) and then bluff on good rivers (A K or something like that maybe)
Very true. Don't semi-bluff in against all players if they are passive-calling stations that overvalue top pair then keep away from semi-bluffing them all the way to the river as they will call you down.
So player tendencies is what GTO lacks it only gives guidance on what you can do against a GTO player not against the average John Doe :)
So when almost equal EV value choose the line that best suites the play against your opponent if calling station then value betting not semi-bluffing if aggressive would say the otherway around so check-calling with value and semi-bluffing.
The player was indicated as a LAG so would semi-bluff that kind of player a lot with good draws.
Zeneka I agree with most of your general points. As I mention above, I estimate his limp/calling range to be mostly middling suited connectors and pocket pairs. Some Ace-high as well probably, but those will fold before river.
Your last paragraph is ok, and I agree that bluffing on A or K river makes sense. But if I understand you correctly, you're basically never bluffing on this river? I don't agree with that. Not all loose/passive recs are calling stations. Many of them are capable of folding to a triple barrel.
King seems like a pretty bad card to bluff to me. It reduces his Kx combos but he is much more likely to call with 10x
Ciaran Farrell Yeah I guess so
belrio42 I just do not like the way the hand plays out, lets say you have AQhh instead, it makes a little more sense to bet big on turn to sort of valuebet/protect vs draws, but with Q high we sort of force ourself into a ton of problems, like almost having to call a turn shove vs passive players and being in a very sucky spot on the river when we miss b/c we lose vs Ahigh draws so we are almost forced to bluff. If we on the other hand just bet smaller on the turn we would keep more weak draws and Tx hands that we could argue the river bluff will be a lot easier to make and at the same time being able to get more calls or weird bluffs on the river once we hit our draw.
I think in generall there are tons of ways to play vs weak players that make them play much worse than if we force them to play faceup.
Let us say that you bet 1/3 flop and 1/3 on the turn, he will have Kx, Tx, QJ, AQ, AJ, J9, maybe even worse pairs like A3, all BDFD, and when you hit the river you can vbet big, bluff comfortably and sort of inducebet river with nuts that block his nuts and set him up for bluffing with the missed draws. But when you play the hand this way you force him to play, not correct, but rather force him to to less mistakes. Like calling all draws and Kx and folding all else.
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