tricky spot OTR 3bet pot
Posted by Jusc
Posted by
Jusc
posted in
High Stakes
tricky spot OTR 3bet pot
Blinds: $5.00/$10.00 (6 Players)
BN: $1227.43
SB: $330.50
BB: $1157.50
UTG: $1000.00
MP: $1122.00 (Hero)
CO: $1000.00
SB: $330.50
BB: $1157.50
UTG: $1000.00
MP: $1122.00 (Hero)
CO: $1000.00
Preflop
($15.00)
Hero is MP with
Q
K
, , , ,
Flop
($215.00)
3
J
Q
,
Turn
($215.00)
3
J
Q
9
,
River
($425.00)
3
J
Q
9
T
, ,
not many reads on BB, besides hes a winning regular playing those limits. His image is solid. what we do OTR here ?
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Fold, you either split or he shows AK. He should expect you to bet a king OTR here which may call a x/raise but not necessarily raises the river.
Unless you have some image of going for superthinvalue which he tries to abuse.
Or a hand that has some SDV but isnt good enough to call and therefore decides to raise, I cannot see much of these tough.
Call, "you either split or he shows AK. He should expect you to bet a king OTR here which may call a x/raise but not necessarily raises the river."
:D
?
We probably have to call, because we can't have AK, which means that villain can shove any K here. Villain can also bluff.
So nasty spot. If we fold K here we fold to much xP i think we splitt here alot given how the hand played.
b/c or c/b, never ever b/f here w/o a sick read
i think we probably are supposed to call most Kx here, maybe not 100%, but we definitely can't be folding 100%
I mean, is he really betting the turn with AK here just to fold out 22-88 (actually he might, those are some combos) ?!
I think the question is would he just check the river with nothing and decide to raise when we bet? Would be weird because everytime we check back he loses and if we happen to call his x/raise, his bluff becomes much more expensive than a simple river lead. I believe he x/calls the river with 2pair/trips or leads river for 1/3 pot or something because
Don't bet river?
We're missing too much value if we don't bet.
Vilain being a solid regular, 3betting range BB vs MP is probably pretty strong by default. The way the hand played out, I think vilain rarely has a set (1 combo of QQ, JJ has all the incentives in the world to bet flop ; 99 and TT would usually flat pre I think), so when we bet river we're mostly trying to get value from AQ (if he 3b it pre AND if he check the flop) and AA. By bet/calling river, we're banking on vilain turning AQ and AA into bluff, while he still very credibly has most of the AK combos in his range (and we're splitting vs KK, which is also credible).
I also believe AK would almost always check river ; and obviously this is quite coherent for AK to 3B pre, check flop, stab turn. With 12 combos of AK available that will play this way most of the time, I find it hard to pick enough combos we want to get value from.
Basically the fact that we have a straight cannot be a good enough reason to bet, if our opponent is mostly check/folding or having us beat. As for bet calling, I would have to compute the odds and combos, but I don't think we have a profitable bet/call.
Obviously if vilain is 3betting 12% BB vs MP (or versus Hero specifically), then all the reasonning collapses.
i agree with the comment given those considerations but disagree with checking river in the hand. i can't imagine that you have >30% Kx in your river range. so i think it's automatically a bet with any K just based on that. It could even be a bet if you have 50% Kx depending on the composition of his range at that point. I dunno where the thresholds are, but the point is in order for him to be incentivized to XR AK, he needs you to be betting a good deal of the hands that you wouldve called a bet with. and if you have to call a river bet somethin like 60% of the time, then betting somethin like 40% of the time when checked to seems pretty inexploitable. Even if betting all ur Kx made the EV of his AK way higher to XR than to bet, that doesnt mean you're doing anything wrong. It just means you're probably at a big range advantage OTR, and his nutty hands play best to slowplay. Betting all ur Kx would only start being bad if he had so much AK that he ended up XR'ing at a ridiculous fqcy. or so much Kx and AK that he could defend mostly by calling (with chops) and raising AK+bluffs. In both cases that would mean ur probably at a range disadvantage BEFORE any river actions. which means he shouldnt be doing so much checking as to disincentivize you to bet Kx. So you can't really get around this being a bet basically, b/c to argue that it's not a bet you're going to have to argue that he made a big mistake with his range OTR (by checking too much at too large of a range advantage)
great post. Though, given his line, shudnt he just jam anytime he has Kx? its such a rare spot that its not like IP can go back in time and slow play with AK pre flop
maybe .. but if he caps himself with no Kx OTR, now we can start jamming all of our 8x (if we have any) and potentially even all of our 2pair/TT/99, which seems very wrong in the sense that it would give him a lot of incentive to check Kx always, and then we'd eventually come to rest at an equilibrium where his Kx is mixed and we're likely ~indifferent to betting or checking something like 8x or set.
i meant check/jam Kx, like if he checks some Kx OTR, when opponent bets, he should just jam his Kx along with AK and people shoving is in essence a free roll to maybe get Jusc to fold his Kx, and it helps him get paid with AK. I dont see why OOP (villain in this hand) would ever just call after Jusc bets with Kx. He has nothing to lose by jamming cuz its not like Jusc can go back in time and slow play AK on this rare runout to punish him for it
why villain would ever lead AK OTT ?
Why would he not?
maybe because he has no fold equity and very little room to improve ?
He makes us fold 22-88 and he does have 4 outs to the nuts. What else villain is supposed to be bluffing here with then? AK seems like a good candidate to me.
@ raph .. basically just for runout coverage
@ fivebet .. tru. but if i'm thinking about it correclty he can't even balance any extra bluffs with a Kx XR b/c IP never has to call with less. so the fact that OOP XR's all Kx as oppose to XC wouldnt even make it thinner for IP's Kx bets i dont think?
I think it makes it thinner because unless he's gunna bet/call all Kx, then he risks getting bluffed off a chop... and bet/calling all Kx seems like it gives OOP x/r with AK a ton of EV
im a micro fish but anychance someone can aware me why checking back flop is better? cant villain c/c worse otf? is it because facing a c/r sucks a ton?
Betting is an option, but we probably don't want to bet/bet/bet for value with this hand because villain can show up with stronger hands given positions, so we don't really lose value by checking. It's nice to have this strong hand in our flop checkback range so that we can call turn and call river comfortably. Getting check/raised also sucks.
Many good reasons to check.
Agree with Samu; before you bet think about how tough your decision will be if your bet gets raised; if it will be very tough, checking is better.
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