TPGK, weird line by fish on dry board
Posted by holopainen
Posted by
holopainen
posted in
Low Stakes
TPGK, weird line by fish on dry board
BN: $137.53
SB: $33.63
BB: $50
UTG: $100.12
HJ: $50.10
CO: $58.88 (Hero)
SB: $33.63
BB: $50
UTG: $100.12
HJ: $50.10
CO: $58.88 (Hero)
Villain is 41/21 with 26% wtsd. He seems to be pretty aggressive, with 52% overall AFQ, and 8.9 AF on the river, over 1.4k hands.
His donkbet is 30%.
His donkbet is 30%.
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop
($3.50)
J
6
3
(2 Players)
SB bets $2,
Hero raises to $5,
SB calls $3
I usually raise for value in this spot, as I want to take over the control of pot and betsizing. Fish generally giveup or bet very small on the turn if their hand is marginal so I'd rather take him to valuetown.
Turn
($13.50)
J
6
3
2
(2 Players)
SB bets $5.50,
Hero calls $5.50
He bets again, even that I raised, I thought his range consists mostly middle strength hands which are afraid of a big bet, and random spews with underpairs. Also I felt raising would be overplaying my hand.
River
($24.50)
J
6
3
2
Q
(2 Players)
SB bets $21.63, and is all in,
Hero folds
I was clueless whether I should look him up here.
Final Pot
SB
wins $23.40
Loading 4 Comments...
With these stats (AFQ,AF), I let him donk and just call all three streets. He can fold his bluffs after your flop raise and continues with draws (only 54, which got there on the turn), Jx and sets. In general, I don't like raising these kind of board textures.
You have 1.4k hands on him and he plays 41/21 !!!
Even if you did not know what kind of hands Villain is donking with (in game) you should def. check out your database, before you post this type of hands. If you have those guys at your table, who are pretty bad and always come back, you want to know how to exploit them!
Beside that I think you missed some important stats:
Cc in SB: Some people are super tight when it comes to Cc from the SB and some play with a >30% range. It is a huge different if Villain has a 10% or 20% Cc-Range in this spot!
3bet: Is he able to Cc QQ+ preflop? Bad players like to slowplay those hands pre and just donk out or x/r their OPs on the flop.
F2 cbet: If he has a F2 cbet of 70% it is pretty reasonable that his donking range is strong. If he has a F2 cbet of 30% it is pretty reasonable that his donking range contains a lot of shit.
Donk/f-c-r: If he is donk/folding 60%+ calling is way more attractive than raising. If he is not folding to raises it would be horrible to call vs 30% donkingrange! Obv this stat will not be too meaningful becasue of samplesize, but its still super important
With the information we have I do not fold the river and I like the raise vs him, but again:
- what is he donking?
- how does he react to raises?
- how does he react to raises in generell (oR vs 3bets, cbets vs raises/ x-raises)
- did you saw him donk (f+t+r) with air?
My arguments for raising are:
- he is probable Cc a wide range pre (J9o stuff)
- donking a lot of shit/weak SD value/Jx which he will not fold
- we do not know if he really donks his bluffs over 3 streets, but we can assume, that he will not fold any Jack
- we get max value from his bad MH but loose value vs his bluffs
=> We need to kown what his donking range looks like ;)
In general, I don't like raising these kind of board textures.
Imo, we should not play our range/the board here at all! Figure out how to exploit him and do it.
And with the given information it's more powerful to let him barrel. His intention is to be agressive (as his stats indicates this), so it's a better exploit to calldown than raise him (and let him fold his bluffs)
I'd fold. His line is weird, but you beat nothing but a spazz or KJ.
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