TPTK v turn shove

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

TPTK v turn shove

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (5 Players) UTG: $10.15 (Hero)
CO: $10.00
BN: $9.98
SB: $13.48
BB: $8.34
Villain is 21/18 AF=3, 3B=10% (10 out of 104) CB=67% over 264 hands. He had never 3bet v UTG (0 out of 31 times).
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is UTG with K A
Hero raises to $0.30, CO folds, BN calls $0.30, SB raises to $1.40, BB folds, Hero calls $1.10, BN folds
What do you think here ? Would you consider folding ?
Flop ($3.20) 9 5 K
SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
Turn ($8.20) 9 5 K 3
SB bets $9.58 and is all in, Hero folds
Well I block AA and KK so theres only 4 combos left of that, then there's another 9 combos of AK that I chop with. I also block the NFD, so I think AA/KK/AK are more likely also given his PF action, maybe he has KdQd, KdJd. So for calling his shove I need to be right here 30% of the time. If he does this w/ all AA, KK, AK combos and KdJd I have 38% equity and should call. The problem is that I doubt that he will squeeze w/ KQs,KJs every single time and I also doubt that he will shove AK OTT every time. Against AA,KK,AK I have 31% equity and a call is therefore marginally +EV.

Loading 3 Comments...

Be the first to add a comment

You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.

This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy