TPTK in 3 bet pot vs UTG facing donk on turn and river

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TPTK in 3 bet pot vs UTG facing donk on turn and river

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) BB: $5.39
UTG: $7.16
MP: $5.14
CO: $5.52
BN: $5.11 (Hero)
SB: $5.07
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is BN with A K
UTG raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.30
Flop ($0.97) A J 8
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.40
Turn ($1.77) A J 8 7
UTG bets $1.29, Hero calls $1.29
River ($4.35) A J 8 7 8
UTG bets $5.02 and is all in

so villain is 25/25 over 97 hands / 75% fold to 3 bet pf / 1.7 agg factor
never saw him 4 bet before

when he call preflop i feel like his range is mostly midlle pocket pair, suited broadways and Axs.... what do you guys think?

when he x/c flop and donk turn what do you think he has like type of range.... its hard to say but i figured that maybe like KJh KTh KQh, its weird to see any set play like this because he would x/r flop or x/r turn right? its just something i assume but i jsut think set makes no sense.
i called turn but when arriving on river facing a shove for all my stack with the 8h is very bad for me right
i have to fold?
what do you guys think its hard for him to bluff

6 Comments

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fefe.p 7 years, 3 months ago

Easy fold on the river: we don't dominate villain's value range and it's really hard for him to be bluffing imo. Turn is already pretty dicey and i would probably fold there already

Kalupso 7 years, 3 months ago

I'm folding that hand with those positions. You are probably getting bluffed once in a while but you have better hands to call with, don't beat value hands and ranges are really strong.

I think you will mostly face two main strategies here. The player leading good hands on the turn and never bluffing river, and the clueless or tilted player clicking buttons. Against the first you are losing a lot against if you call. The second you are probably not winning much. Large downside and small upside makes this just a fold for me without reasons to believe villain is really tilted just clicking buttons, and even then it's not a great spot.

Kalupso 7 years, 3 months ago

AK is still a pretty good hand on the turn and can beat some weird merge bets. I am mostly folding pocket pairs and unpaired hands without a flush draw on the turn. Hands like A5s and KJs can be folded if you have them in your range.

I think you should have a really low flop cbet at equilibrium on a flop like this so you should mostly just fold the weakest bluffs against the turn donk.

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