TPSK call river?
Posted by zerocool
Posted by zerocool posted in Low Stakes
TPSK call river?
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
CO: $77.82
BN: $55.04
SB: $60.90
BB: $58.54
UTG: $51.40
MP: $53.70 (Hero)
BN: $55.04
SB: $60.90
BB: $58.54
UTG: $51.40
MP: $53.70 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is MP with
Q
K
, , ,
villain(39/15)77hand
Flop
($4.25)
K
9
3
,
Turn
($8.99)
K
9
3
9
, ,
did he look like r fd or TP(AK or KQ) on turn? will you call and ck/f the
river or ck/call when river blank? what hand will you put him on?
river or ck/call when river blank? what hand will you put him on?
River
($40.19)
K
9
3
9
T
, ,
ck/call or ck/fold here?
Loading 9 Comments...
Fold River. You have to be good 31% to break even, and I dont think he bluffs that often. I would expect him to check behind his toppairs a lot (if he raises them at all) . I think you will run into 9x a lot. Check his Aggression and w$wsf stats, and also his wsd. If he is passive it's very likely that you were dead oft and should have folded there.
so w$wsf= wwsf?
wwsf is 42.55, wsd 54.55 and saw river 21? aggre or passive?
You can exploitatively fold turn against most villains. The 9h turn is an awful card to bluff at, so his range will be extremely value heavy and therefore has you crushed.
I don't really think 9x is an awful card to bluf. I think we would be x-calling some of our 9x on the flop, so we have not all of them in flop betting range, while villain will have all of them.
Awful card to bluff at on the turn would be Kx.
Yes won Dollar when saw Flop indicates how much someone fights for his Pots. 42 is pretty low, 45 May be avg 50 id a lot. His wtsd is low too for sure and his wsd on the other side is pretty High. His stats more or less indicate that this is never a Bluff.
I agree with @Saulo, i dont like calling turn raise without specific reads/stats about villains agreesion. Too many 9x in his range imho. Its not like 9 is bad card for bluff for him, but this card makes his range stronger.
Also i dont like your sizing at flop, i bet there about 3$ vs. fish.
Fish never thinks about wether 9x is in our Flop betting range or not
Interested to know what Hero's cbetting range here is. I see a lot of people cbet wayy too much OOP and get into these kinda spots OTT. But lets say the turn is 8d and we bet and get raised then what? I don't like calling as we have to then call OTR and this probably becomes a fairly huge mistake. We get into a lot of spots OTT/OTR where we can't know what is best and we likely either make a major mistake or make a small +EV decision.
Also If we are cbetting Over pairs, Kx, FD & GS here for example then our checking range is very weak and very exploitable. IE Villain can just bet and either we fold OTF or to a double barrel probably 90% of the time. If we check more of our Kx then we can also check some of our FD so we begin having a far stronger checking range and villain can't just double barrel to get us to fold as we won't fold Kx OTT. Therefore he has to triple barrel bluff to maybe get us to fold Kx and lets be honest, who at 50nl is triple barrel bluffing after getting called twice on this board texture?
We can then begin to have a wider delayed cbet range and as we have our Kx hands in there we can bet river as well so villain can't really exploitatively call his worse pairs than Kx but at the same time kinda has to as we have maybe our NFD that balance at Kx that we delay double barrel with. OFC these also sometimes make the nuts :)
AP I would no way bet OTT now, like ok we give his fd a free card but what else does he call with we beat? maybe a few combos of KJ but they don't call 3 streets anyway. I'm more inclined to not potentially make a mistake by betting OTT and give villain the chance to make a mistake by bluffing missed FD and thinly value betting worse Kx. We also then lose the least v 9x without winning less v the hands we want to.
Turn is a check.
With this hand against anyone, vs a reg we'd probably check our whole range. The card helps him too much.
Once he raises the game is over, std baluga theorem
Be the first to add a comment