TPGK vs missed cbet
Posted by Salatmann92
Posted by
Salatmann92
posted in
Low Stakes
TPGK vs missed cbet
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $86.89
SB: $25.45
BB: $25.65
UTG: $31.55
MP: $30.04 (Hero)
CO: $38.27
SB: $25.45
BB: $25.65
UTG: $31.55
MP: $30.04 (Hero)
CO: $38.27
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is MP with
Q
K
, , , ,
UTG is a 17/14 regular
Flop
($3.00)
6
K
5
, , , , , ,
UTG does not cbet this flop, so I am discounting AK here. Therefore I value bet 1/2 pot. Should I bet bigger?
Turn
($6.00)
6
K
5
2
, , ,
After UTG's x/c on the Flop I put his range heavily towards 77-QQ, maybe KJs, KTs.
Then he x/r big (his turn agg% over 1.2k hands is 18) and I just give up, though I am lost here. He still could bluff FDs, and after his missed cbet 4-way I don't see him having that many value hands.
Then he x/r big (his turn agg% over 1.2k hands is 18) and I just give up, though I am lost here. He still could bluff FDs, and after his missed cbet 4-way I don't see him having that many value hands.
Final Pot
UTG wins $11.27
Rake is $0.53
Rake is $0.53
Loading 11 Comments...
We can assume he never bluffs in these spots. His line is weird since most villains are not slowplaying in a 4-way semi connected pot. Maybe I go for 2/3+ bet since we're gonna find more callers than an usual HU pot.
But I would fold also.
FLOP
When villain doesn't cbet flop imo his range is split between:
(A) marginal hands weaker than TPTK that want to pot control and are not strong enough to cbet 4way.
(B) Monster hands like sets that are trapping or trying to X/R and get the money in.
(C) Give ups that bricked the flop and are check folding 4 way.
*note a 17/14 nit will rarely have 2 pair or a straight draw on this flop. The K of spades on the board hugely reduces the amount of flush draws he should have.
Flop cbet is good as we get value from A, fold out C. However since the 2 other players fold villain might now decide to slow play his monster as c/r looks very strong and he only has 1 player to worry about drawing out on him instead of 3.
I like your 1/2 bet size as we want to get called by as much of range A as possible.
TURN.
This turn shouldnt change anything. Villain is repping very strong and unless he is turning marginal hand's from range A into a bluff (which would be strange) then he doesn't have enough bluffs for us to do anything but fold.
So clear fold imo.
However I think the mistake in this hand is the turn bet. The only worse hand I can see us getting 3 streets of value is maybe KJs ( as he won't have any other kings in his preflop range). So by betting turn we are folding out most worse hands and only getting action from the slow played monsters. If we xb we are more likely to get value from range A on river and we lose less to his monsters
Woops that ended up being a bit long :/
Isn't this a good board to get two streets of value on the flop and turn?
Sometimes the PFA can double call with QQ/JJ (he can assume we're on a draw) or weak Kx. Other villains can chase some draws as well.
If you check back ott, are you betting or xb again otr?
If you go for 2 streets of value, I don't like to xb this turn and realize villain's equity for free (altough top pair K protects our equity a lot).
I agree that we have good hand for 2 streets of value but I rather fire the second barrel on the river than the turn because:
-A bet check bet line looks weaker imo and is more likely to be looked up with JJ, QQ
-we don't expect villain to play any flush draws like this so his bluffcatchers only have 1-3 outs to win on river which is fine to let them realise.
-We will make it to showdown vs a larger part of his range: if we bet turn he will raise bluffs (if he has any ) and raise monster's and call with bluffcatchers. If we are always folding KQ to raise we only get to river vs bluffcatchers.
If we x/b turn , he will bet most monsters and bluffs on river and x/c bluffcatchers.
Nice!
Thank you for advice so far. I like your ideas. So you basically go for bet/check/bet as long as you don't need to protect your 2 street value hand that much rather than bet/bet/check?
I don't understand why you flat KQs vs a 14 PFR after 1.2K hands guy.. He has like all broadways and 88+ so you're a major underdog vs his range and you can barely suck out on him as all the flushes in his range beat you so you're looking for T2P or nutstraight to get it in good vs him. When he gets tricky and shows agression I would just fold, he can have 5flush outs , 1x top set and 6x AA(I used an 8% RFI UTG as a hypothetical RFI) + the weird played AKs.
And also, when we see a guy who's such a nit, does he even have bluffs?
KQs has 42,91% equity vs. 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo
I don't believe folding KQs ip vs a nit (probably bad at poker especially postflop) is making sense.
We have position so we can realise more of our equity in heads up pots than villain can.
Also as salatmann92 said we expect to have postflop edge on a player this nitty.
you are IP second to act, giving everyone behind you a reason to come along as well as not IP 100% of the time, or go for the squeeze, either way you lose equity realisation + you'll have to fold 66% of the time vs UTG's c-bet because you got nothing and I wouldn't like floating a nit with K high.. my 2 cents and there's 10% rake for seeing a flop.
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