Vs mp in 5handed. Its nice 4b withbsome freq since i block qq, kk, ak and dont block his Ax bluffs combis

yeah if he 3b 4%+ mp vs utg.

we are playing BTN vs MP and he 3b in this spot 10%

well my bad i misread :)

Thanks for meaningful comment!
That's right that I hope for spazzes OTR, but I think I can find x/c there since I need only ~29% equity. It might be probably slighlty +ev call, because of underepping hand.

Anyway, how do you find his bottom value range OTR?

I think it's very hard to determine villain's value range here because of how weirdly the hand was played but I imagine the bottom of his value range is AQ here, along with that he def has some flushes and maybe straights (but really not that often if his range here is really as tight as 5% preflop)
Maybe some AA, KK that he randomly checks back on the turn, maybe some weirdly played two pair.
With this many value hands in his range that beat you, I don't think it's likely villain bluffs enough to balance that on this river so I feel like it's a fairly easy exploitative fold, especially since you have some flushes yourself and maybe some sets or straights to call. (something like 87s)

ok, it might be played a bit wird, what line would you suggest?

hard to say that sizing is not generally a bluff. What's so value in it? I'd say this sizing is fishy, when he's ~20$ in stack left.

Ya I dont see it both being a good idea to try to get someone off a pair or people trying to get us off a pair here. I d fold.

Leaving 20 behind often is a read that its more value looking for a call. Like why else would you leave 20 behind?

I dont know. I think we just can't say explicit that it's a value. Since last few days I've seen few bluffs with few buyins left in stack, so we cannot generalize. TBH I dont like any sizing tells unless I have a note. I'd rather look at the timing tell, but didnt notice anything special in this spot.

The sizing just changes the math, you need to call 62$ to win 152$, so you need to win about 36% of the time, which means he needs to be bluffing about the same % to make it a call because you don't beat any value hands in his range. In a 4bet pot it just seems unlikely he's bluffing enough OTR to make you call.
In the end you need to look at your own range too, you can't fold your entire range because then villain autoprofits with his bluffs, so basically on the river, with the line you took, if KQ is in the top 36% of your range you call it otherwise you fold (unless you have a read to deviate from GTO)
So basically if you want to find out what the GTO move is OTR just look at what your range looks like when you play like this and see where KQ is at in that range, from there you can see if you need to call the KQ.

(if anyone more familiar with GTO reads this feel free to correct me if this is wrong)

yeah I get it, I know that I'm really high in my range so probably I cannot fold it. You said before, that line is weird, why do you say it's wird? Would you play it in a different way? Regarding to flop and turn

Hey Drudges,

I'm not sure you're right when you say that 'you need 36% to call so he needs to have the same % of bluffs to make it a call'.

This spot makes it a bit easier to figure out as it looks like a straight bluffcatcher spot where we beat none of his value but all of his bluffs. Needing 36% on the river (I'm gonna assume those are the right odds btw) means we get roughly 2-1 on a call. This means that villain needs to have half as many bluffs as he does value (2 value hands for 1 bluff) in order to make this a call.

So in this spot it will be 8 combos of AQ, 1 combo AdKd, 3 combos KK and 6 combos AA (this could be wider or narrower but glancing through the hand this seems reasonable) which is a total of 18 value combos. This mean villain needs to be bluffing with 9 combos of hands in order to make this a call theoretically.

imo he's value range is much narrower because of turn XB. I assume that most of his AA or KK would bet on this street.