TP v NIT

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

TP v NIT

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $13.52 (Hero)
SB: $30.39
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.68
MP: $15.29
CO: $34.16
BB is 15/13 and tight/passive post
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is BN with Q J
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, SB folds, BB calls $0.15
Flop ($0.55) Q 8 2
BB checks, Hero bets $0.28, BB calls $0.28
Turn ($1.11) Q 8 2 T
BB checks, Hero checks
River ($1.11) Q 8 2 T 4
BB bets $1.20, Hero folds
Final Pot BB wins $1.06
Rake is $0.05

For flop calling I give him TP+ less half his sets, 99-TT, 8x, g/s Ax & Kx rr fd. 72% v this range to see the turn.
FZ rates the Tc as the best card in the deck for his range v our hand, and even if he continues 70% which is all Tx+, FD, OESD we still only have 45% so my intuition to check seems correct.
otr as villain seems passive, we have 3% v his value range, and with little air, he doesn't seem the type to turn made hands into bluffs so it's a trivially easy fold given all the above - didn't feel that easy in game fwiw.

Your thoughts RIO?

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