TP + NFblocker vs looser player OTR. 100nl

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TP + NFblocker vs looser player OTR. 100nl

.wt_rel td {font-weight: bold;}.hheader { font-weight: bold; font-variant: small-caps; font-size : 13px; color: black;}.wt_hh1{ font-weight: bold; font-variant: small-caps; font-size : 12px; color: black; }.wt_h2{ font-variant: small-caps; font-size : 11px; color: black; }.wt_t1{ font-size : 11px; color: black; background-color: #eeeeee; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 4px; border:1px solid #DDDDFF;}.wt_blue {color:blue}.weaktight_hand {font-size: 11px;}.wt_ul {list-style:none;}$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem • 5 PlayersGenerated by weaktight.com.UTG$100CO$199.50BTN$89.15WM2K (SB)$118.88BB$134.49 Pre-Flop ($1.50, 5 players)Hero is SB 3 folds, WM2K raises to $3, BB calls $2 Flop ($5, 2 players) WM2K bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50 Turn ($14, 2 players)WM2K bets $11, BB calls $11 River ($36, 2 players) WM2K ($100.38)?

Villain seems is reasonable but I have seen him do some kind of rando spazzy plays vs another reg. He s playing really loose in the bb vs sb (fold vs steal ~35%) and is 3 betting ~20% of that range. Fold to c bet 63% so far. Whats the best play on this river? Is he going to call with KT,K9, K8,K7 type hands often enough to value bet? This is obv going to be someone who has way more flushes then most seeing as he s probably playing nearly every suited hand preflop.

Whats the optimal river line here?

7 Comments

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BigFiszh 11 years, 11 months ago
I´m likely x/f. I don´t see much value in betting unless he´s stationy but as you mentioned he´d be reasonable that shouldn´t be the case too often. And with him defending that widely he has a ton of flush combos in his range. Additionally, if we bet the river we just made his turncall correct if he was on spades.

So, once we check he should probably check behind most of his showdownable hands - I doubt he´s capable of turning Qx into a bluff? That means we will probably win a decent chunk at showdown but we´re pretty much toast once he bets.
thestomach 11 years, 11 months ago
bet $18-fold? might hero you with his worse kings or any queens. could even look you up with j10, aj type hands. some regs get stubborn here and dont believe you would value bet top pair here.

i like to find a fold if villain raises as pretty much everything got there. however i dont think villain would raise QJ, KJ, so its generally a flush only that sees a raise. so if you have notes, reads or seen previous hands where villain floats to bluff or has shown tendencies to do so when scare cards peal off then bet calling off is fine, or going for a check-call otr.
James Hudson 11 years, 11 months ago
If you think that he's a station bet fold something like 1/2-2/3 pot. If you think he's floaty and recognizes showdown value then check calling seems pretty good. If he's a straightforward nit then just check fold I guess.
mplecki23 11 years, 11 months ago
Seems like a pretty good spot to consider b3b if you get raised here. He also shouldn't have much of anything here since he's 3b all his broadways and big sets, and calling twice on this board with like 97ss isn't a great option. And if he raises the river with like 73ss he'll prob puke fold vs a jam.

I'd be pretty happy betting and letting him talk himself into a call with like k5s type hands, especially if he's 3b a linear top 20% 3b range. With 65%-top 20% range pf, that's all K2-KT and all Q8s-q2s and q5o+. I don't know exactly what he's 3b with, but you can play around and see he has an insane amount of worse Kx and Qx hands that can find a call.
mplecki23 11 years, 11 months ago
Even if we give him a not folding range of {all flushes, 33/22, K2-K8s, K2o-KTo} we are 50%. To get to 20% 3B we have to add in some suited combos, especially when villain is more likely to 3b 73s vs QTo type hands. Villain is also folding the turn with some spadespade combos, possibly heroing a Qx combo, and raising flop with some k2 and q2 combos, along with combo spades. As a result, we'll have well over 50% equity and can bet, and betting is much more likely to be more +EV than checking since Qx and Kx will happily take SD, and there shouldn't be too many double floats on this board
WM2K 11 years, 11 months ago
I don t think you can expect villain to fold a spade draw OTT very often here to the point that its near negligible. Also I don t think we can expect a hero call from every TP hand either.

B3b is interesting and something I had thought about. Vs some players it could be good I m sure but vs this guy in particular I think it would be kinda lighting $$ on fire. This is due to reads I have nt fully stated though.

What concerns me the most about what seems to be his strat is that he has a very high fold to c bet so far. He can definitely be a bit too loose preflop and then a bit too fit/fold postflop. This is fine for us obv as its quite easily exploited but just means we gotta be careful about coughing up our profits that we make OTF by giving him sufficient implied odds OTR.
mplecki23 11 years, 11 months ago
With spades, I kept them all in as all those hands beat us. I don't think that's the case, and did a worst case example to include any possible flush that wasn't in pf 3B range.

For fcbet %, I'd play around a bit with the range and figure out what %s match up. As long as the number is somewhere close I'd prob be happy, as there is probable a bit of variance depending on board texture and situation. I'm not sure that's the best way to approach it either tho :(

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