TP 3bp turn play?
Posted by furiouslettuce
Posted by
furiouslettuce
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Low Stakes
TP 3bp turn play?
Villian is a reg. should I xc turn. Am I calling any rivers? Villian has a fold to 3bet of 60%
BTN: 341.22 BB (VPIP: 22.92, PFR: 16.51, 3Bet Preflop: 7.20, Hands: 630)
Hero (SB): 120.14 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG: 113.48 BB
MP: 175.76 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
CO: 102.66 BB (VPIP: 27.77, PFR: 21.12, 3Bet Preflop: 11.89, Hands: 602)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qd Td
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.4 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BTN calls 6.6 BB
Flop : (19 BB, 2 players) 9c 3s Th
Hero bets 6.68 BB, BTN calls 6.68 BB
Turn : (32.36 BB, 2 players) 7h
Hero checks, BTN bets 20.28 BB, Hero?
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Im a HU player so cant comment to the best strategy but id rather see a half pot sized bet its not the dryest flop and can defend/get value from AK KJ KQ JQ 78s. As played Id rather cbet the turn as well as the board is starting to get even wetter, however as play call turn as you're perceived range is pretty weak here, and yes I would be calling rivers, he may have picked up hearts, could have a hand like 78 just picked up an open ender, a8s. And we look weak so theres definitely rivers im calling
7 has to be the worst possible card.
IMO this is a much better board for his range, so I think he should be betting all of his weak pairs and draws on this turn. However he does have all the 2P+ as well as JJ. By checking the turn we are both showing weakness and keeping his range wide. By no means do I think a check here is wrong.
I would have to run this range, but I think he has nearly as many hi equity bluffs as he does semi value hands. But he has ALL the 2P+ hands.
I don't think we have many cards to make a happy call with OTR. 2 Q and 2 T by my count. I could be totally wrong, but I'm pretty sure I could find a fold here. That being said, its good we don't have a heart and he may shut down on the river with 98 or 87. So are we calling any river bet? I do not think calling for a check is profitable in the long run.
I would have barreled on a 5 and lower, 8 or T and higher, but this is a pretty bad runout for us. We have a lot of barrels and X/C here, but not a 7 of back door flush draw.
For what it's worth I'm not often 3 betting this hand out of position vs a solid tag
how is a 7 the worst possible card
Well I think 7 completes a lot of villains straight draws, gives him a lot of 1 pair open enders, opens him up for combo draws and overall smashes his range. He is quite a bit wider than us at this point and middling connecting cards gives him the opportunity to bluff us off our equity with over pairs and over cards, which is a very large portion of our range here. I would not expect to see a check by villain on this river and I don't think we can value bet lead any card on the river. If an A had rolled off on the turn, our range would be at a slight advantage. Same with a 2. Seven helps a ton of hands the button will open and call preflop.
I'm happy to be challenged on this idea as well as my ranges if anyone cares to.
Turn x/call is fine. River can sometime call a pairing card (3,9,7), a Q or a T depending on sizing.
how about some blanks 2c/s/d or a 5
We gotta call turn here. If he is floating, that's not a terrible card to bluff vs. turn check. You have induced a bet where he has some winners but he has a bunch of losers too. I think JT bets here sometimes since they have TP and improved equity on that turn. There are 5 great river cards for you and a bunch of decent ones too. I would peel this turn.
In the sim I ran, blank cards were most often high frequency fold but I feel the strategy is somewhat brittle. I'm guessing that a good part of our turn EV call comes from when the river simply checks through.
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