Tough Spot Live 1/2

Posted by

Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Tough Spot Live 1/2

Sorry if this is the wrong forum for this.

Readless on villain (been at table for less than an hour and haven't seen him showdown) but he's like a 40 year old white dude who has clearly played before. OTTH
Raise from LJ to 10 and Villain calls, BU calls, to hero in SB with AdQd calls and BB calls. I think squeezing here is fine but I'm usually calling here OOP and I'd rather use AQo as a squeeze since it plays so poorly multiway. Also, the guy who is raising in the LJ hasn't open raised before and have seen him limping. So yeah, squeezing is standard and so is flatting and that's not what I'm really worried about in this hand.
Flop: Qx8d2x rainbow
Hero checks (I think leading out is just as good or better but pot controlling is fine and I'm expecting a bet most of the time anyways). Villains bets 50 into ~50 Hero calls rest fold. Pot ~150
Turn 6 completing the rainbow. Hero checks and villain bets 200. Hero has 260 behind approximately. Hero?
It's a spot where we have to jam or fold imo. I think this spot will seem like a snapjam to most people, and I understand that, but at the same time villain never has any bluffs here so we should be way overfolding. His range is something like 22, 88, KQ, AQ or something like that and I doubt this exact player has QQ or KK or AA. The pot flop 5 ways and overbet turn is a super nutted fish line and it's hard to imagine him vbetting a worse hand (maybe KQ but I doubt that's overbetting here). If I'm not calling with this hand I'm only calling sets but against this line maybe an exploit fold isn't that bad?
Hero tanks for ~4 minutes and jams.

9 Comments

Loading 9 Comments...

ralphykid67 7 years, 9 months ago

His range is something like 22, 88, KQ, AQ or something like that and I doubt this exact player has QQ or KK or AA.

Why exactly do you not think QQ+ are in his range? Yes we are blocking QQ and AA so they are less likely, but they are still in his range.

Based on the info provided I would assume his range (after this turn bet) is almost entirely KK and AA. I know it's tough, but in live settings at these low stakes I think we need to find an exploitative fold here on the turn. Players aren't balancing their range in this spot at all. Especially guys who limp nonstop and then all of sudden raise once an hour. He also not likely to be turning a hand like JJ or 1010 into a bluff in this spot. Most of these players are just going to give up after you call them on the flop.

lancemarx 7 years, 9 months ago

As an aside I only included the PFR not raising any hands for an hour as the justification for not squeezing pre, which I believe to be the standard play here

tr33f1ddy 7 years, 7 months ago

His range is something like 22, 88, KQ, AQ or something like that and
I doubt this exact player has QQ or KK or AA.

I agree with your assesment as far as it goes. I don't see villain not raising QQ+ pre and just flatting, so I agree these hands are not likely a part of his range. And for sure 22, 88, KQ and AQ are a big part of his range given the action. But this is live 1/2 and you are leaving out an obvious hand: Q8s. I'm not saying villain has this hand, but it certainly has to be considered. This is one of the arguments for raising pre: you will likely fold out most of the hands that are beating you in this spot.

I also don't think you've been at the table long enough to be sure of your nutted range assessment of the LJ. A couple of limps in 25-30 hands doesn't mean he has AA, KK or AK when he finally opens. But your arguments for calling are certanly valid.

On the turn, I hate your shove here. What better hands are folding, and what worse hands are calling? I see the answer to both questions being as close to 0 as possible. If you're lucky, you get a chop to fold and a live 1/2 donk to call with KQ but that's about it. If you are intent on getting all of your money into the pot here, then you could call his turn bet, and check call the river, hoping he bets a weaker Q than yours, or he is firing 3 streets with 99-JJ trying to get you off a weak Q (an unlikely but not an entirely impossible scenerio, since you have shown no strength at any point in the hand so far. Why would he put you on AQ here?). You did say: "the villain has clearly played before."

As played though? I would probalby check fold the turn and be sick about it.

lancemarx 7 years, 7 months ago

Thought process for jamming turn is as follows: Villain is probably betting all his hands that beat me on river and I'm just never going to be able to fold except on maybe a K. I don't think many 1/2 villains are going to be folding KQ if they have it for the price they are getting and probably not AQ either and if this assumption is true and they're likely to check back a weaker queen on the river but call my turn jam then I'd rather just jam turn if my money is going in by the river against all better hands anyway.

Hova 7 years, 5 months ago

what's the point check calling turn and not jamming ? We are never folding river so villain gets to check back his worse Qx/bluffs and value town us perfectly. I'd jam turn if continuing so we max value when ahead or make him hate life with like 9T if he can have that which turned double gutter.

As played I think we have to just get it in. Id discount sets too when he bets so big on a dry board and we don't have enough info to be hero folding.

Meat Head 7 years, 5 months ago

I don't think we're winning too often here. Villian has 22,88, and kk. Sometimes aq,aa, and qq however were blocking these. He sometimes has worse with kq. But at 1/2 there are so many spots to pick in a sesssion I'd let this one go and find a better opportunity.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy