Tough hands for fallout #9
Posted by Pokerlogical
Posted by
Pokerlogical
posted in
Low Stakes
Tough hands for fallout #9
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (9 Players)
BN: $17.03
SB: $25.70
BB: $12.50
UTG: $24.60
UTG+1: $25.00 (Hero)
MP: $67.61
MP+1: $25.00
MP+2: $24.00
CO: $36.82
SB: $25.70
BB: $12.50
UTG: $24.60
UTG+1: $25.00 (Hero)
MP: $67.61
MP+1: $25.00
MP+2: $24.00
CO: $36.82
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is UTG+1 with
K
K
, , , , ,
Flop
($5.35)
T
4
Q
,
Turn
($5.35)
T
4
Q
3
, ,
River
($11.85)
T
4
Q
3
2
, ,
Villain 18/13
At the time of the hand I had like 230 hands on villain and he had 2,9% 3bet vs EP.
So no way I can fold pre but also not profitable (maybe BE to 4b?) to 4bet/gii.
Flop he decides to checkback. Smells like AA or AK giveup or some A5s giveup.
Turn he bets quickly. I have to call.
River is interesting... he looks a lot like Aces but I'm pretty high up in my range and there is at least some chance that he is 3betting AQo pre and valuebetting here also some chance he is doing this with A5s or AK.
But AA is a real possibility...
The thing in this hand is that I wouldn't even defend that wide preflop. Probably only QQ+ and AKs.
Loading 4 Comments...
I doubt 230 hands isn't enough to completely know his 3bet v. EP range. Nevertheless, if we assume its QQ+, AK, AQs, A5s, which is fairly representative of a 2.9% 3bet range, and were confident he doesn't take this line with AK then we only have 20% against his range OTR. If he starts bluffing AK it becomes a call pretty quickly, unfortunately we block the AK he's most likely to take this line with. FWIW, I'd still 4bet pre GII.
isnt he more likely to bet AcKc and AdKd on the flop instead of checking it back?
the only hands i can see risking checking or c/r on flop would be TT - QQ. - AA - AK would bet there since straights and flushes out. But a 4bet would be i believe the best option.
Seems insane to even contemplate a fold here. AA most likely bets the flop, AQ can be valuebetting the river. Your seriously not willing to put 2 small bets in postflop on a runout and line that favours you? Probably -ev to call preflop then if your only set mining.
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