Toptwo facing a river raise
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by
MatoStar
posted in
Low Stakes
Toptwo facing a river raise
Hello, decided to post this hand, just because I want to hear your thoughts and opinions.
Again until the river it is somewhat standard. The river bet could be a bit larger, but wanna get some crying calls from Ax hands. His raise is indicating value I would say from 95 to 100% of the time. But my assumption was that his range is from 77 (sometimes 55) and AK. If he is raising AK for value, then I have kinda breakeven call. Add some non-zero amount of bluffs, can we justify a call? Or is it too assumptive to think that players are raising here AK for a thin value?
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Bet bigger OTR, he would call with any AJ,AQ and alike, by betting small you are sacrifing EV, a lot of it.
If he has 77, it's a cooler imo, ah he could have AK too, def not folding but I prepare myself to reload
But if not folding which bluffs do you except from villain? Because I cant find any natural bluffs in this line.
Pretty gross imo. I guess chopping with AK? Is that enough? Bluffs should be almost non existent.
Size turn better and you can just shove yourself. Or just shove anyways. Theoretically theres every little reason usually for a IP player to underbet rivers. Obv its something that happens some but generally you have incentive to bet large or check. OOP blocking happens as you have no option to check behind.
I would suspect that if villain is competent, that he's going to under-bluff in this spot, so I wouldn't hate a fold here, though it feels dirty and is likely fairly close, mathematically. That is, if your assumption that villain does this with AK is correct (only 1 combo left for A7s, so not much help there). If not, much easier fold.
I would challenge your reasoning for the small river bet - all Ax has the same hand and is likely price insensitive, given the line. Everything else folds or beats you, so i would think a polarizing river shove gets it in the most often when you're actually ahead -especially since, as you demonstrated here, you're calling a shove anyway.
Hi, I'd shove the river and as played I think we can call vs unknown. We split versus AK and we only need villain to shove 1 combo of bluff to be good here...
looks like a spot to bet bigger on turn and shove river. I don't like the block bet but once you make it, its pretty ugly. I'm guessing this is a chop with AK most of the time but he can have random spazz vs the small sizing as well as 77 so I'd probably just call
I think ure mostly chopping w AK given ur river sizing, go bigger. I think u only losing to 77’s here
Unless he over defend pre
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