Top set on monotone connected board

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Top set on monotone connected board

HJ: $52 (Hero)
CO: $38.75
BN: $132.90
SB: $60.75
BB: $48.15
UTG: $51.60
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 9
Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BN folds, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Flop ($6.00) 5 7 9 (5 Players)
SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6, CO folds, SB calls $6
BB is literally unknown, he just sat down on the table. But we can assume he is fishy, as he bought in for strange amount (47.90) and i think he was playing one table.
His lead looks very strong in big MW pot, he can easily have a flush, overcalling from BB with any suited hand. He can have two pairs, sets, straights, and pair+draws.
I think most of you can agree - there is no point in raising here.
Turn ($24.00) 2 (4 Players)
SB checks, BB bets $40.65
So turn, how to perceive this action?
What do you think about SB hand? 22/13 player, 1.6 aggression. Regular but i guess not a winning one, i move him towards passive nit side.
What is the strongest hand we are folding in this spot?

3 Comments

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Skyzoph 12 years ago
IMO, it seems he is defending a two-pair or set hand,...maybe straight flopped? There's no sence to play like this with a flush flopped.

I think i'd call here 'cause a ton of times, surely im against 59,57,79,55,77, or these kind of hands, and If im wrong i still have a 20%.
ShiestyShamus 12 years ago
I think a lot of what goes into this decision is how well the small blind plays actually. He check/called a pot size bet out of position in a three way pot with a monotone board, so his range is probably a lot stronger than the aggressor's actually. The only thing I can see him showing up with here is either a lower set, a made flush, or possibly just the nut flush draw with immediate 3:1 pot odds. Now in this spot, I would assume that the better the small blind is, the less likely he is to have called with Ax offsuit from the small blind preflop, and his range shifts more toward made flushes for calling the flop bet. If this was heads up, I'd call all day, but because the small blind's range actually looks way stronger than the aggresser's, and the fact that there's a decent chance the aggresser already has a lower flush himself that he's just trying to protect, I would say it's actually a fold. If however you think the nit is actually fairly likely to be showing up here with only the Ax off suit, then I could lean a little more toward calling. I'd definitely want a solid read on that to justify the call though. Most nits aren't going to be calling oop with offsuit aces in a multipot too often.

Then again, rethinking this and doing the math, I'm liking the call more actually. Even if you were pretty sure that one of them was holding the flush, you're going to end up paying about 40 for 100 once the small blind gets it in too, giving you about 40% pot odds to make the call. Given that neither of the villain's are likely to have paired the board when you're behind, you can actually take 4 more cards out of the deck giving you a 10/42 chance or about 24% to suck out on them, so it's not horrendous paying 40% pot odds for 24% equity in the likely worst case scenario.
fush.arsi 12 years ago
it seems he is protecting an overpair or a twopair. i would call here because we have 11 outs in case he has flush/straight.

fishs like a lot calling with suitted cards but likes c/r too these flops

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