Top set, meet ugly board.

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Top set, meet ugly board.

SB: $680.92 (113.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $660.30 (110.1 bb)
UTG: $673.14 (112.2 bb)
MP: $332.30 (55.4 bb)
CO: $600 (100 bb)
BTN: $604.65 (100.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kc Ks
2 folds, CO raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $60, CO calls $45

Flop: ($123) 4h 9h Jd (2 players)
Hero bets $72, CO calls $72

Turn: ($267) Qs (2 players)
Hero bets $138, CO calls $138

River: ($543) Kd (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $330 and is all-in, Hero calls $330

Villain is a winning reg that normally plays HU. No history with him at all.

I think I'm still ahead of a majority of his range on the turn so my plan was to bet/call since I block KTs and he could be jamming T9s/JTs trying to get me off a one pair hand here.

On the river it basically comes down to how many times he has T9s/JTs/QTs/KTs/AThh vs the times he has a missed flush draw or decides to turn a hand like AJ into a bluff. It's pretty much either a check/call or a check/fold IMO but I'm not certain which is best.

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