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Top set facing an overbet NL25

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Top set facing an overbet NL25

BB: $25.70
UTG: $30.22
HJ: $24.90 (Hero)
CO: $38.30
BN: $22.73
SB: $25.24
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.62, CO folds, BN folds, SB calls $0.52, BB folds
Flop ($1.49) J 8 9 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $6, SB calls $3.50
Turn ($14.49) J 8 9 T (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River ($14.49) J 8 9 T 5 (2 Players)
SB bets $18.62, and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot
SB wins $12.88

Can I get some feedback on this hand? Villain playing 23/15/2 over a small sample size. Only folding to c-bets 20%.

Should I have played this differently? I was obviously hoping to get it in on the flop. It definitely sent me into the tank for a while trying to figure out what Queens he could c/r then call me with on the flop. 


16 Comments

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RaoulFlush 11 years, 9 months ago

I guess we should 3b bigger OTF to at least 8 or 8.5...I see ppl XR KQ in in this spot and maybe you invited him to float OTF...as played riverfold seems fine....I guess any air parts of his floprange got there and overbets are usually strong

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 9 months ago

Opens HJ 3x and bet 1.25 on the flop IMO, but I might be bitching here.
Definitely don't like your raise sizing on the flop. You pretty much doubled it and he doesn't fold any hand he raised the flop with, other than the occasional weird bluff. Make it about 8.5.
Turn check and river fold are good, IMO.

PhilG86 11 years, 9 months ago

Thanks,

Yeah I agree with raising the flop bigger, that was the first thing that jumped out at me when I looked back at the hand. I used to raise 3x but have been experimenting with 2.5x recently.

I'm interested to know if anyone thinks I could call the river given that my turn check kind of caps my range. I almost certainly don't have a Q when I don't bet it.

Tom Willetts 11 years, 9 months ago

I think that occasionally checking Qx on the turn is important vs a competent villain so that you can defend better against this line. It's almost certainly a better adjustment than calling river with JJ because it stops him value shoving 7x. Also it's going to be tough to get 2 streets from worse than Qx on a river brick anyway.

PGalfondFollower 11 years, 9 months ago

Agree with above comments about the flop raising size. Even if you make a bigger raise, he would have still called if he did have a thing like Tx, gutters,2 pairs. If he was bluff raising, he would have folded no matter the size of your raise.

wuwei 11 years, 9 months ago

Yeah, raise bigger. Concerning the Turn, I could imagine it being a good spot to bet like $4 with your whole range. (checking your entire range I like as well). I perceive your range to consist of Qx or sets- roughly weighted 50/50. If you bet $4 you can react perfectly to his pot size shove/play rivers perfectly.

PhilG86 11 years, 9 months ago

I quite like this idea of checking my whole range on the turn. I don't think I have very many queens in this spot, probably QTs, occasionally QTo from HJ and maybe KQs if I had a back door flush draw. I think I'd bet/call QQ and QJ.

Seems like checking my Queens to protect my sets might be the way forward here

ElmosMyBff 11 years, 9 months ago

The first thing I think you did, as stated above, is that you 3b to small. You needed to not range cap yourself on the flop, if I was the villian, I would instantly put you on AA or KK  scare raising the board, and he can now profitably over bet any q,j,t,9,8,7 of any paired suit on the turn and non suite on the river. This is all just because you range capped yourself with the smallish 3b sizing. To be honest I feel as if you have him beat here more often then not, I feel as if his range is more weighted toward 2 pair combo such as (A or K)j/jt-89 and air (he also sometimes shows up here with 88 and possibly 99 but less frequent. If he had any type of qj, q9,kq combo here I think he has enough equity and outs to rejam you on the flop due to your smallish raise sizing.

My assumption is you folded to 2 pair, the odd lower sized set, and complete air. He might have had a queen but you just played your hand so weak that his over betting range is more weighted with value vs 1 over pair type hands. Sometimes its a losing call, but more frequently, I think you were ahead.

Also I think his sizing is a tell, any queen here I don't think is a betting that large vs a perceived 1 pair type hand, it's losing a lot of value over time vs your perceived range, and also inducing a shove vs AK.


PhilG86 11 years, 9 months ago

That's an interesting take on it but I don't think your reasoning is correct. I don't think 4 betting caps my range no matter what size it is, as I said I'd play QT the same way and you don't get much better than the nuts. I would almost never 4bet AA or KK on the flop because I'd rather bluffcatch with them than turn them into bluffs. I have better hands for bluff raising like KQ, KT etc.

You also say you think he has 2 pair or a set but why would he turn such strong hands into a bluff? He's probably only getting called by a Queen and he has to be concerned that I could have one. I would think a weak one pair hand, like a T,9 or 8 would be better to turn into bluffs here

james 11 years, 9 months ago

I like the idea of checking back Qx occasionally but I don't think you need to do it very often because a bunch of villain's range can still continue on the turn. With villain's range in mind, I think you should mostly be folding river because he/she shouldn't have many hands that need to bluff (I would expect most two pair/ sets to take the showdown) especially after we've narrowed villains range by getting 3 bets in on the flop. 

ElmosMyBff 11 years, 9 months ago

Wait a sec...... I guess I should have asked if this is zoom or just standard tables.

The reason I make that remark is because in Zoom/rush I feel as if players are taking more opportunities to play post flop as the game is run by taking "gto" situations to turn ev plays into reasons to make decisions.

Between my last comment i ran into a similar hand, not the exact same, however similiar river situation.

No Limit Hold'em $0.50/$1.00PokerStars6 players
UTG - Hero ($120.37)
MP - MP ($231.36)
CO - CO ($106.14)
BTN - BTN ($159.07)
SB - SB ($100.00)
BB - BB ($58.22)

Preflop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is UTG with 7s 7c
Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, CO calls $2.50, BTN calls $2.50, 2

foldsFlop: 9s 5c 7d ($9.00, 3 players - BTN: $156.57, Hero: $117.87, CO: $103.64)Hero bets $5.00, CO calls $5.00, BTN calls $5.00

Turn: Kh ($24.00, 3 players - BTN: $151.57, Hero: $112.87, CO: $98.64)Hero bets $11.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $11.50

River: 8h ($47.00, 2 players - BTN: $140.07, Hero: $101.37)Hero bets $22.50, BTN raises to $140.07 (all-in), Hero calls $78.87 (all-in), Uncalled bet of $38.70 returned to BTN

Total Pot: $249.74BTN shows 9c Jc (a pair of Nines)Hero shows 7s 7c (three of a kind, Sevens)Hero wins $246.94 


I feel in Zoom people are taking this line often and really looking at the way the hand plays out can be a factor. My decision was based on him having more combos of 2pair, 1pair/bluffs, awkward hands like k9, q9, j9 t9.

Sometimes he has the 6 yes, and yes sometimes he shows up with t9, but his bet sizing -much like in your scenario- screams suspicion, like he is looking for an excuse to buy a pot. More often then not when i'm making these types of calls i'm analyzing the player, if the board is for sale, the texture or the board, and what line they took on each street (including the river jam) the river jam just makes no sense value wise. In my eyes only a strong villain would over jam for value here, I deduced he wasn't a strong enough player to get this type of value off made hands. Much like your situation, again I cannot deduce your opponent as I do not have a history vs him and cannot see the stats in depth (outside the typical hud stats) but I still think you folded vs 2pair such as jt.

I truly think he wouldn't throw all value out the window here, donk river lead shove vs your range of maybe as weak as a bad played aces? Like I said it could even be bottom set.

Maybe he had 78, i dont think its totaly unrealistic for him to have the lower end of the straight, but again, your ahead of more combos then your behind here.


My opinion should be taken with a grain of salt as my reads, again, are based off deeper hud stats and pull out menus which include previous hands he has played. If I see he has played AA or KK followed by j5, q3, 93, and just complete flounder hands, then it's clear, he lost with aces and is tilting. My read vs your situation is very linear and should only be taken as "another opinion". The main thing to do is think your plays through, have logic for every decision you make, and get comfortable with the right plays and confident in your ability when thinking situations through.

Phil Galfond states in one of his videos as well "You need to get a read on the limit and game type as a whole, and how it is being played, not just the players.". Not an exact quote, but it gets the point across.

BigFiszh 11 years, 9 months ago

Didn´t read the answers (it were so many :D), so forgive me if this has been mentioned couple times before, but I had called the river - and had been pretty happy about it.

When you think about Villain´s range, what Q´s should he have in his range? Same for 7x? The only hand that made real sense would´ve been T7, but who calls T7 from SB?! So I guess this is a set, maybe 2-pair the the majority of the time, now thinking he has the "nuts" after you checking behind the turn and signalling that you have no Q.


Insilicio 11 years, 9 months ago

I think your cbet sizing is a bit too small. This board hits villains range pretty hard, and therefore you want to cbet a stronger range, and because of this, you want to pick a bigger betsizing if I am correct so you can get more value. 

ElmosMyBff 11 years, 9 months ago

yup, like i stated before. your bet sizing shows him he can bet any XXXXX cards that come out, one being a Ten. Over shoving for value against your perceived 1 over pair hand? 9t is my guess.

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