5/10NL 6max - Top of capped range is facing heat BB vs SB

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5/10NL 6max - Top of capped range is facing heat BB vs SB

$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($1,092) 109bb
CO ($1,927) 193bb
BTN ($340) 34bb
SB ($1,000) 100bb
Hero (BB) ($5,358) 536bb

Pre-Flop: ($15, 5 players) Hero is BB K:s J:h
3 folds, SB raises to $30, Hero calls $20

Flop: J:c A:h K:c ($60, 2 players)
SB bets $40, Hero calls $40

Turn: 3:h ($140, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $100, SB raises to $290, $190 to Hero ($5188)?

Hero is running on 25/20 Stats, 26% wtsd
BB vs SB 3bet 13%, Call 31%
Postflop Fold to Cbet: 41/41/29
Bet vs missed: 60/57/50

Villain plays 28/21, 27% wtsd, 2.4 Total AF over 24k hands.
Opening 30% SB, Fold to BB 3bet 32%, 4bet to BB 3bet 24%
Postflop Overall Cbet OOP 81/43/52
Skip Cbet and c/raise on the turn: 8%
Bet River after turn raise: 70(10)

A hand that a friend came up with lately where i initially had no idea what might be the best line.
Beside having all possible nut-straight combos KJ pretty much equals AJ here so we are on the top of our (capped) range.
I think in todays 5/10 games you will most probably face a river-shove when calling this turn, so our decision on the turn is basically an all-in decision.

1) Betting the turn seems imo out of question, right ? Rangewise we want to bet this turn for value, protection and sometimes as (semi)bluff.
2) What is your plan in this spot and how does it fit into your overall range ?
3) Is folding out of question as we open up our game to get exploited in spots like this ? (Imo boards where BBs range will capped occur somewhat frequently)

10 Comments

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woohoo42 12 years, 3 months ago
Call turn and call any river because he continues with a lot of his range. T or a Q would be amazing on the river, because they reduce possibility of him having a straight and he is less likely to shove 2 pair. I believe he calls turn with pair + gutshot type hands. You can fold on Ace of clubs(maybe), but I believe that this is one of those spots that if you call turn river is a call as well. In addition, I don't think turn shove makes much sense, since he is not committed and only better hands are calling(I guess AcX can shove as well, but our equity is still not that great).
Phil Galfond 12 years, 3 months ago
Great post. The stats are very helpful. Try using the HH converter we have here for next time. Just choose "New Hand History" rather than "New Post."

1) I agree with the turn bet.

2) and 3) -

Obviously, your hand is a complete bluffcatcher. Being towards the top of your range is relevant, however I feel that QJhh, Kxhh type hands are stronger than yours given the action, and hands like JTo are even very close. He should be polarized so all of these hands are basically as likely to be good right now as KJ, but they have more opportunity to improve to (basically) the nuts.

This spot is extremely opponent/read dependent. I lean towards calling because I don't expect many players to plan a value check raise on this turn-

a) Value c/r raise range is narrow (AK maybe, AA, KK, JJ, QT)
b) He should expect a good deal of your hands (QJ, A5, KT) to check back
c) He can expect many of these same types of hands to call turn, and potentially bluffcatch on rivers, making 3barreling for value very attractive.
d) Because of (c) he will have most of his air/weak hands in his checking range (giving up), meaning he only needs to bluff with air a small % of the time to weight his range towards weaker hands.

Seems more like he either gave up and then decided to attack, or he planned a c/r semibluff with a flushdraw, thinking that a bet doesn't have enough FE, and perhaps he gets a free card anyways.

Sure, he has it sometimes, but against most players, I call.
James Hudson 12 years, 3 months ago
I think the crux of the hand is actually on the flop. We say that our range is capped because we'd always raise Q10 on the flop but how many other hands are we actually raising on this flop? I think we might be better off not having much of a raising range on this flop given preflop and then our range is much better protected on turns. Also, like Phil said, if we're continuing I think we want to do it more with hands that have equity vs his nutted range rather than hands that beat his bluffs.

Additionally, if we're going to cap our range on the flop I think we're probably best to use a smallish best size of around half pot on the turn as it reduces the effectiveness of his check raises vs a range that doesn't have many nutted hands while still allowing us to decide if we want to put more money in via a river bet or not.
Sean Lefort 12 years, 3 months ago
Finding myself saying this a lot, but I agree with James. Because I peel the BB extremely light here (getting 2:1 in position in a HU pot against a ~30-60% range), I have trouble folding much. And thus, this flop definitely favors the SB's range in a big way. Therefore I don't have a raising range here and thus I'm not capped for the rest of the hand.

As for the turn/river decisions... I'm with Phil in that I'm not folding by default but it wouldn't take that much readwise for me to feel fine about letting it go.
Lucas Greenwood 12 years, 3 months ago
And I would fold turn vs most, the problem is vs his value range (JJ,KK,AA,AK,QT) we have 7.5% equity, and getting in 85 more bbs with 7.5% equity is obviously a disaster. Of course he can be semibluffing kxhh, qxhh and txhh, but given those hands have quite good pot equity (and bluff equity) vs our hand so I would be inclined to fold (even though we are near the top of our range).

We also have a hand that isn't really worth 100bbs, if he bet the turn the consensus would be call, and if he bet river the consensus would likely be call again, although fold some rivers (A,Q,T, 3) I think everyone would agree raising river on anything but a K or a J would not be a good play. The point I'm trying to make is if our hand is only worth a river raise if we hit a 4 outer, than its probably not strong enough to continue vs a turn raise unless we think we have substantial fold equity on a shove. And if I chose not to fold I would shovve because, 1, a lot of his semibluffs are close to priced in to call a shove, and I'd hate to incorrectly fold the best hand on an AQT3 or heart river
mason barrell 12 years, 3 months ago
I favor a fold.
Very tough spot blind vs. blind, but I feel like he shows up with the best hand quite often, and though possible, it's unlikely he would just start bluffing in this situation without a big draw.
Again, it's an extremely tough fold to make in the heat of battle, but I've actually been in this situation numerous times recently, and villain's always been strong.
Peter J 12 years, 3 months ago
You guys are forgetting some value c-r hands like A3 and 33 but I still prefer a call here on the turn, you are most likely to be up against one of the two flush draws
James Hudson 12 years, 3 months ago
I'd be pretty surprised to see someone chose to check raise the turn with A3. I think generally people are more polarized than that in this spot and it plays so poorly on a ton of rivers when called.
Patrick Leonard 12 years, 3 months ago
I think it's a somewhat trivial fold. What do we expect him to be bluffing with here? A flushdraw? Wouldn't he just keep betting a flushdraw on the turn given that we probably just check back lots of Kx, Jx, even weak Ax on the turn? What else is he bluffing with? Q8o that he decided he was just gonna give up with, but then got a sudden urge to raise when you bet? Doubtful. Seems like a nutted hand going for max value.
sympathy_for_the_grinders 12 years, 2 months ago
Good players generally expect other good players to get stubborn when they have the top of their range. I don't think villain expects hero to fold ax plus here- people are so cally when they are capped.

I agree that it is hard for him to have a strong hand as villain should be checking back turn so often- but I think when hero has such a weak range then villain will go for a bet bet bet line with the weaker part of his range rather than risk hero checking back with j/qx

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