top 2pair deep v shove flop.
Posted by maco
Posted by
maco
posted in
Low Stakes
top 2pair deep v shove flop.
https://www.weaktight.com/h/5f3a91aed390430b178b46f7 ug is playing 27/23 30 hands and mp is a weak player 55/15. I guess its a fold in this spot, right? I dont see anyone going all in this deep w overpair here, but we also block some sets. What are your thoughts here?
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I would call and expect to be up against FD+2overs, misplayed OP enough of the time. 22 shouldn't be in EP's range, but it might be. Hard to say with n=30 hands. You're blocking the most likely sets. So, that's 3 to 5 combos of sets. I gave him 25% of the combos of JJ+, AXdd, 88, 77, 22, T9dd, JTdd} and you are 54/46 favorite. If you remove overpair combos and FDs without 2 overs you are 43/57 dog {22, 77, 88, A2dd, A9dd+, T9dd, JTdd}...getting 2:1 on the call
Did MP fold?
Edit: original Flopzilla equities were off but still looks like a call.
Yes, the mp folded. If he called the hand would got so much harder.
Since there are no more decisions you can just think about your range and calculate MDF. What range are you raising OTF?
(I'm calling there at 10nl but I believe MDF will tell you to fold)
For value every set and 2p and as bluff some combo draws. I want to have some good equity when I raise here because I dont expect him to cbet that wide on this kind of flop.
Im never folding this. Its like 130BB behind so not superdeep and i expect some kind of dynamics with the whale involved.
So Villain might simply shove his combodraw/NFD or might feel the need to protect his AA.
If he plays set like this, so be it
Agree, I think this has to be a call.
There's only 5 combos of sets (assuming all sets play this way and don't raise smaller or just cold call trying to trap) vs. at least a few overpairs that are trying to shut down action on a very wet board + some draws with less than 50% equity that are trying to chase you off of pot ...
About half of the regs in my game have no air in their betting range on the turn and river, to the point that I have folded third best full houses confidently and been not surprised when a jam was a one combo nut full house. In this spot, even my worthy rivals would have as many combo draws and overpairs because they understand what other people would play back at them with. Every hand that they brought to the table needs protection or has equity to realize now.
What I'm saying is, even in the most absurdly tight player pool in the world, this is a call.
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