top 2 vs overbet river on a backdoorflush board
Posted by papaFR59
Posted by
papaFR59
posted in
Low Stakes
top 2 vs overbet river on a backdoorflush board
BN: $34.54
SB: $330.25
BB: $538.87
UTG: $122.86
HJ: $48.11
CO: $269.94 (Hero)
SB: $330.25
BB: $538.87
UTG: $122.86
HJ: $48.11
CO: $269.94 (Hero)
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
9
J
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BN calls $2.50, SB folds, BB calls $1.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BN calls $2.50, SB folds, BB calls $1.50
Flop
($8.00)
6
4
9
(3 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $5.65,
BN folds,
BB calls $5.65
Turn
($19.30)
J
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $13.65,
BB raises to $28,
Hero calls $14.35
River
($75.30)
4
(2 Players)
BB bets $122
Vilain seems passive with a 1.1 AF and he plays 35/12 over a very small sample size.
Turn is standard, river the 4 remove a combination of set but it gets in the backdoor flush. I never seen him overbet before.
Loading 5 Comments...
Snap fold given stats. yeah the 4 removes 2 combos of 44, but it puts 64s and J4s infront of us (which a 35/12 may defend preflop) aswell as stopping him value cutting himself on the river with 96s/J6s.
so if he has say 44/66/99/64dd/57hh/78hh for value that is 9 combos and we need 38% equity to call he needs to bluff around 14.5 combos for us to break even. Given villain I think this is super unlikely... I cant really think of any bluff a guy with these stats and this line can have tbh.
Loose open pre ill open depending on btn.
I think turn is fine but i would fold rvr, dont see a passive player running too many bluffs like this.
J9o is definitely at the bottom of your CO range, but given Villian being passively and likely over-folding pre-flop, I'd open as well.
It's a pretty good spot to check back, but since your opponent is less likely to attack here, c-betting is fine. I would not bet any turn that doesn't improve me, though.
Turn looks good, although I'd bet bigger. You have so many gutshots, open ender, picked up FDs etc., that you cannot let your opponent defend with his flopped pairs. This is a spot where he cannot defend those against a 3-barrel, so you need to give him bad odds.
Since you only lose to a flopped set which he would likely check-raise then, this is definitely a call. Against an aggressive opponent in a 100BB spot, I'd jam here, to balance out your combo draws.
Turn is a snapfold. A passive player, check-raises a turn that brings some draws, and overbets when one of them gets there. If he had some kind of gutshot, he would check-raise the flop over the turn, and if he had some low pair, he'd be more likely to fold than turn it into a bluff.
You say turn is a snapfold and use the arguments that he is passive, checkraises a turn that brings draws, and overbets when one of them gets there. But we dont know on the turn that he is gonna overbet the river.
Since we still have a really small sample size, we cant really assume that much. I do think he would x/r bigger if he would have a strong hand like a set.
I would call the flop and evaluate river. On this river with villains play, it's an easy fold for me. He has never done this before to you, your'e deeper.
It was a typo. Meant snapfold river.
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