Took a shot at NL100 today
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Low Stakes
Took a shot at NL100 today
Since it's my first time at NL100 I didn't have any big sample sizes on villains' stats but in all 3 hands they appear to be regulars.
1) http://weaktight.com/6313532 bottom set, wasn't too happy seeing BTN jam this flop since he probably flats 44/77 and maybe even 65s here most of the time. No 2 pairs in his range on this board and I doubt he flips out with 88-TT here so I can probably fold? Then again I have a set and my line might look a bit bluffy.
2) http://weaktight.com/6313596 From my experience big raises on monotone boards are rarely ever bluffs and we have the Ah so it's even less likely he's doing this with a flush draw. I'm not drawing dead though. So do I shove the flop and just get it in while my equity is highest, or do I flat this and see a turn?
3) http://weaktight.com/6314644 Wasn't thrilled about the 5-bet but getting 4.25:1 I don't see how I can fold. I take the line that induces the most bluffs and I'm at the top of my range here with backdoor 2NFD. Do you play this any different?
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1) reading it I Was like "yeah Im never folding a set" but then I opened the HH and if there ever was a time I think its here. Hed have to be daft to be shoving any overpairs here, and its not like theres any sort of combo draws. You dont look that bluffy IMO, I mean its bet and called, if it was HU I think it would be different, I mean its hard to find a fold in game, but I just cant rationalize a range we have the odds vs unless hes really bad.
2)Its possible its a bluff occasionally, its not a bad spot for it, it looks strong, positions are such that your range is wider, I mean I agree that its usually not, but I think u can throw in a couple, and maybe occasionally its a worse hand like KQ or something that just doesnt know what to do or want to play more poker OOP. Id prolly just shove. Tho I guess if he has some bluffs, wed be better just calling, but I dunno what to do on turn given the odds well be getting, so I prolyl just take the easy way out while our equity id decent.
3) No clue pre :) Flop we cant fold, against just KK+ and AK we have the equity to call
1) 2) agree too itstooth
imo we should flatcll here as a 3x 3bet looks super strong and i dont imagine him to call aq when u cold4bet here.. when he 5bets we should probably fold but well thats why i dont 4bet ... @tooth ak would be pretty overplayed by him pre but well again we should probably fold against a aa,kk range otf but im probably not folding ingame ... anyways flatcall his 3bet
3)you dont wanna go in with AKo again utg open and utg+1 3bet,i know why you 4bet ->utg is fish and he can only isolation,but 4bet here with AKo is nonsense if you dont wanna call shove ,i rather flat (it is oop ,that sux) but let fish stay in game.
In this situation you could cold 4bet something like AA,KK,A5s
1) if you a solid player your hand is too face-up
2) its not the end of the world but its good you understand some opponents have a very value heavy raise on monotone boards. You blocking some of villain's semi-bluffs. check your equity and see if you can find the best cbet sizing, though i like your bet size without doing the analysis.
3) depending on how opponents construct their ranges AK isn't a value 4bet here. you can use it as a merged bluff/value but if you taking all your AK hands and 4betting that is too many combos unless both villains are very wide or bluff heavy (3bet range).
1) Are you suggesting that I flat flop rather than CR? And to not have a CR range in this situation?
honestly, i'm really lost with this spot. its 4handed to the flop and we can reasonably be beat so our hand isn't an auto value raise. but then again it is a set so we cant be folding?! Since CO has all pocket pairs, and some SCs and BTN can have all pairs and some SCs i don't think i'm happy trying to bluff raise this board into so many players.
i've been removing my low pairs from my calling range in some multiway pots for this very reason but maybe its just run bad. i've encountered over-sets so often i've had to re-think my play with these low pairs, especially when OOP in multiway pots like these. Interestingly, i've often been in the SB and been oversetted when its gone 4handed?!
1) Getting such good odds I cant find a fold. This is probably worth stoving....
Pot odds are offering you 2.08:1, so 32.4%.
26.76% equity -> 33
73% equity -> 77, 44-33, 65s, 65o
So given an absolute nutted range with no overpairs. You only have to find 6% to make a call. Add in any over pair, weird 7x or wierd draw. You are gold.
2) I am not folding the top of my range, in a 3bet pot when I flop the re-draw to the stone cold nuts :D
3) Agreed with above here, I dont think you should be cold 4betting AK vs an UTG+1 and an UTG raiser. What other parts of your range are you doing this with? I can see this working from CO/BTN or BTN/SB (if you include some bluffs) but here you are just bluffing. Unless they are both fish. I prefer a flat here. As played he probably has aces but its difficult to find a fold....
1) i have Hero needing 30% equity - 64.3 to win (12+8+33.2+97).
33 versus 77/44/65s is 17% versus 83% (i wouldn't include BTN flatting 65o in his calling range)
so you would need to find 13% to BREAKEVEN.
adding 3 combos of A5s is BREAKEVEN (all those that are backdoor nut flush draws). if villain feels there is too much in the pot to fold.
adding 7x that is top pair+gut shot, you only slightly doing okay 31%-33%, the more combos you add it can become very favourable 41%
adding one overpair you are winning very easily. if villain was 'trapping' preflop then overplays postflop.
2) 33% Eq. versus set/flushes. you needing 40%+ its annoying that you started this hand slightly deeper, 100bb there is nothing you can do, the 20bb extra now hurts a little.
2) Well, yeah but… we have the Ah and the Kh is on the board. He called a 3bet - lots of flush combos he would have are blocked, and many more are discounted (anything not connected I imagine.) I think when you run the sim, you have to put in something like 10%:hh and not just hh. Or better, 7h8h+. It's not a ton of combos we're removing, but some. If you take a range of KK, 77, 22, 7h8h+ and add just two combos of AK, you're already over 41%.
i'm afraid your ranges need to be re-evaluated. this is CO vs BTN, KK/AK will be in villain's 4bet range and you can't include 8h7h as the 7h is on the board.
i included the fact we blocking some flushes in my initial analysis, i'm sticking with 33%
villain basically needs to be check/raising with one pair some percentage of the time for us to be happy with the situation
Thanks for the insight everyone.
Regarding my cold 4-bet to 3x in hand #3 with AK, I see it very often that regulars are willing to 3-bet a wide linear range against a fish minraise pre-flop. I even do it with hands like KQo/KJs. So I wouldn't necessarily consider villain's 3-bet vs. UTG range to be that strong here. Although I do agree that flatting here is probably best to keep the fish in the pot rather than play OOP vs. a regular in a bloated pot with a somewhat overplayed AK.
1) I would flat the flop bet. On this board and given our position we have very few bluffs in our range, maybe A5s/A2s. There's also no hands in villains range that we needs to protect against, or that he can semi-bluff shove vs our sizing. I also think he will fold and overpair vs turn shove if he is good so we make ~the same $ vs those by flatting even if he only bets twice and checks river.
2) Just stick it in we are at the top or our range if we are beat its a cooler but we still have decent equity vs everything anyway
3) Agree with others flat pre, doesn't get you in gross spot and keeps fish in. As played yeah I think we have to just call it off.
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