too thin?
Posted by BagOfSuck
Posted by
BagOfSuck
posted in
High Stakes
too thin?
5/10 with 20 otb
bb completes, i open QThh to $80, villain calls on my direct left, 3 others calls.
Flop ($320): 789cc checks through.
Turn Jc, I bet $250, villain calls.
River 8s
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It's hard to imagine him having too many boats given his flop check behind... maybe 78 or JJ that played pot control on the flop... but even those might bet after you check.
it's also hard to come up with many hands that aren't at least a 10 for a straight... sure maybe like AJo with Ac, but that's about it (given your opponent is somewhat nitty shot-taker, so won't be playing too many offsuit hands)
if you're truly getting stationed and a 10 will pay you off for sure... after all, how can you have a boat given your flop check? or even a big flush (two overs + club bets flop, right?)? So, there's a bit of incentive to bet your QT here. He probably pays you off with any AT/KT/9T/8T/7T suited that he played (JT bets flop and QT ties)... so I think he's slightly more likely to have a straight than a flush or boat
and if you check he's not going to value bet a lone 10.
if he's ever folding his straights here to your bet, then I wouldn't value bet, and so check/fold is easily the best play. But I've been in exact live situations you describe, and I would expect to get called by a 10 in your spot if people think I've been playing aggro. and are getting very stationey vs. me on river.
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