To Fire or Not To Fire

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To Fire or Not To Fire

BB: $412.50
UTG: $406 (Hero)
HJ: $459.51
CO: $1447.88
BN: $147.83
SB: $414.50
Preflop ($6.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q K
Hero raises to $12, HJ folds, CO calls $12, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Villain plays 25/20 and is one of the bigger winners in these games.
Flop ($30.00) 2 4 J (2 Players)
Hero bets $20, CO calls $20
Turn ($70.00) T (2 Players)
Hero bets $50, CO calls $50
River ($170.00) 8 (2 Players)
By the river, I think his range is narrowed down to Jx, sets, A3cc, A5cc, and the three combos of JTs.

From a range perspective on my side, I can have a few flushes, overpairs, sets, Jx, KQ, AK, AQ, and the three combos of 89s. I'm having trouble figuring out what should be my optimal bluffing frequency on this particular river card (that's better for my range) since my only pure bluffs would be KQ/AK/AQ.

Even though his range is fairly strong, I'm assuming I have to be bluffing atleast some of the time so would betting KQ and check/folding AK/AQ and everything else bring me to a decent, balanced frequency? Any help appreciated!

22 Comments

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TrickyEnrique 10 years, 9 months ago

Intuitiveley I would bet it w flush blocker. But when I tried to put our range, I realized, that we should ch our entire range river, cause from 55 river comb u have 5 flushes and 3 sets, and I dont think, that we have to vb w QQ (AA, JJ I would ch flop). So we can bluff less flop and ch/c w KQ wo backdoor fd. If we ch/c KQo flop, we have 43 comb river, can vb 14 KK+  and bluff KQs A5s A3s.  And ch/c some AJ QQ w blockers. Or ch/push some A blockers and some nuts flushes(but its again closer to ch our entire range)

Danshiel350 10 years, 9 months ago

you say that there will be 3 x 89s combos in your range

Can i ask why they'd be in your barreling range?

(OOP ranges is something im working on currently).


UpUpAndAway 10 years, 9 months ago
They would be in my flop + turn barreling range since my UTG range is so strong that I think it's a profitable cbet on J42r. When called and the ten turns, I pick up 8 likely clean outs and also likely fold out A high, 99-55, and floats with my turn bet.


R G 10 years, 9 months ago

If he's one of the bigger winners on 2/4, and he flats your open from the CO I think we should be able to narrow his cold calling range a bit more precise, do you have any information on that? Many people 3bet AJ for example in these positions pre-flop.

Also I am struggling to find folding combinations in his range, I am sure they are there, but what calls twice on this run out and folds the River, that has to be Jx which he probably has so little if you ask me (probably only a few Jx suited combinations that flat preflop). I think if he is decent his range is very strong with a large part of it being sets/2pairs/flushes that are obviously not folding, I also think you underestimate the backdoorflushes he could have, I don't see a reason why he can't call the flop with more backdoorflush draws than just the ones that had gutshots on the flop.

I wouldn't advice bluffing here, and I wouldn't worry about having optimal bluffing frequencies untill we know that he can have more fold combinations on the River.

UpUpAndAway 10 years, 9 months ago
While I don't think using AJ as a bluff hand is bad at all, I will say that it isn't a standard for regs at this level to 3bet it vs UTG. At least in my experience.

I agree with you that it's tough to find hands he can fold but I do think he will/should fold out a bunch of his Jx hands, which make up a decent portion of his range (QJs, KJs, AJ). Whether it makes up enough of his range/he folds those hands enough is another story, however!


Chael Sonnen 10 years, 9 months ago

Your Kc blocker is extremely relevant, as it blocks a significant portion of Villians BDFD range.
Combine that with the fact that he never has a straight here, you're at the bottom of your range, Villian only has JTs for two pair (probably raises turn), this is a clear bet.

It's probably mandatory, too. If you're betting your flushes, and JT+, you need this hand in your bluffing range.

UpUpAndAway 10 years, 9 months ago
Do you think adding in AK/AQ into my river bluffing range would tip me into the 'bluffing too much' state? I don't know how to do the math to go about figuring this out...


ohgodwhy 10 years, 9 months ago

"Your Kc blocker is extremely relevant, as it blocks a significant portion of Villians BDFD range."

Which one besides KQcc? AKcc 3bets pre, KJcc, KTcc is blocked by the board, K9cc, K7cc probably doesn't call pre. Am I missing something?

TrickyEnrique 10 years, 9 months ago
I rather have a wide cbetting range on this flop I want to bluff it alot

I think its not always good  vs strong opp, cause its so easy for him to defend enough on 24J. And you have lots of reverse implied with KQ, cause he have all AQ AK,QQ slow sets to river and so on. 

But if you get to this river, I agree with Chael, its a good hand to bluff.


Its hard to say what cbet freq is optimal on this flop, some good players cbet about 40%, some about 70 and balance their range by ch/c some turns rivers


dianasvensk 10 years, 9 months ago

This is a pretty interesting spot I think come up a lot. I semi modeled it for fun, I'm playing live poker atm and have too much time :) 


If you bet river for a pot sized bet you can optimally bluff 50%, so lets assume you get to the river this way w the following (now) value hands that are strong enough to bet river; AcKc, AcQc,Ac4c, QcKc, Ac5c, 8c9c = 6 flushes, TT = 3 sets, AA (6), KK (6) = 12 overpairs


I just assumed here that you'll be checking your Jx and QQ OTR, + the 3 combos of JJ and 3 combos of JTs to have some strong hands check as well. 


That gives 21 combos to value bet here. For a pot sized bet you can add another 21 bluffs. If we assume you're barreling most gutters/broadway cards OTT (which might be too much btw, I dunno, but there's a lot of combos of them) I would def choose the first to be the ones w the Ac, Kc and Qc in them. That would be AcJx = 3 combos, AcQx = 3 combos, AcKx = 3 combos KcQx = 3 combos, QcAx = 3 combos, KcAx = 3 combos, QcKx = 3 combos, tot 21 combos. 


So basically using your Brodway cards in this spot that has a club in them should make pretty good bluffs. Your opponents range is still uncapped on this river (though I think u have a slight advantage, he'll still raise a few value combos/semi bluffs ott) so choosing the right blocker hands to bluff should make a big difference. 


If you bet bigger you can add more bluffs, but I'm thinking it's not a great spot to overbet, like said villain can still have flushes in his range and if you overbet you probably don't want to bet your AA and KK anymore so u won't effectively be able to add more bluffs anyway... But pot seems fine to me. If you bet smaller you should probably remove a few of the bluffs though. 


How you play your hands also makes a difference for how many hands you get to the river w this way, will you ever c/c a draw on the turn, do you often c/r strong hands on earlier streets etc, but still think the club blockers are good randomizers to bluff with. I think you can give up the rest of your air here. And maybe review the turn to see if you are betting too much there.

UpUpAndAway 10 years, 9 months ago
Very nice post, thanks for that! I agree with mostly everything you wrote although I would likely bluff a bit less since I don't normally pot bet rivers in this situation.
Stephen Baker 10 years, 9 months ago

Good post. 

As you say, it will vary as to how we play our hands prior to the river as to the range that we arrive with.I did a similar exercise to you and had  a value range on the river of 9 AcXc combos. I would also value bet TT (3 combos) but maybe put JJ in my check calling range OTR. If we bet half pot the offsuit AcKx and AcQx combos would provide the right amount of bluffs (6 combos)if we bet half pot OTR. If we want to value bet more widely then,yes,  other Acx, and Kcx would be the  next best bluff hands.

Nick Howard 10 years, 9 months ago

what do you guys think about 1 bet sizing OTR for ~1/2pot?  It feels like theres still some value left with KK-AA, and villain doesn't really have a significant subsection of his range that can exploit us for c/f'ing 100% after we check..

I'd be surprised if we're not supposed to have 2 or even 3 sizings OTR , but for the sake of practicality i would like the idea of 1 betting option OTR in a spot where it seems to work well if he's still supposed to raise sets+ vs our merged 1/2 bet (our range is still weak enuff that our flushes still get really good value facing raises from the types of hands that would have called a larger bet)



JulianR 10 years, 9 months ago

"and villain doesn't really have a significant subsection of his range that can exploit us for c/f'ing 100% after we check.."

What do you mean by this?



UpUpAndAway 10 years, 9 months ago

I'm not certain but I think Nick's basically saying that villain gets to the river with so few bluffs/missed hands that we shouldn't worry about being exploited on the river when we take a check/fold line with our marginal holdings, meaning that we should rarely be check/calling the river but rather betting X amount with a majority of our holdings instead...

MrSneeze 10 years, 9 months ago

I like check-calling turn by the way. Gives us a good opportunity to steal the pot OTR if it goes check-check, allows us to realize our equity, makes us tougher to play in general (IMO). I know it's counter-intuitive to play passively when we turn a semi-bluff hand but this spot looks good 4 it.

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