To Call or to Fold on the river? That is the question.
Posted by Lemmings
Posted by
Lemmings
posted in
Low Stakes
To Call or to Fold on the river? That is the question.
I've 3bet a few times and the table is just starting so playing 3 handed, I've shown quite a bit of aggression recently with 3bets so feeling like he might be defending wider by calling with more marginal hands. How would you play this river as played?
888 poker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
Hero (SB): $3.63 (72.6 bb)
BB: $5.05 (101 bb)
BTN: $3.04 (60.8 bb) Villain 44/33 (44 hands)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Ks Qs
BTN raises to $0.17, Hero calls $0.15, BB folds
Flop: ($0.39) Qh Ts 4h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.19, Hero raises to $0.57, BTN calls $0.38
Turn: ($1.53) Jc (2 players)
Hero bets $0.76, BTN calls $0.76
River: ($3.05) 3c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.54 and is all-in, Hero ??
Final Board: Qh Ts 4h Jc 3c
Loading 7 Comments...
I would've 3bet this hand preflop, $0.51 should be enough considering neither of you is fully stacked and BU opened to a fairly large size.
Flop, as played, I would play check/call, but if you think he's loose enough to have a value check/raise, then make it bigger like $0.85 and shove turn.
River, as played, it's a call for me. You get 3:1 odds and he could have a worse Qx and busted draws, so you should be good often enough to justify the call.
Preflop I don't mind the call but prefer 3 betting these hands as you are playing OOP but can still hit strong top pairs but also can represent strength on a lot of runouts.
Flop: I don't really like the raise, you are kind of saying you have a set or two pairs and are letting him decide which hands he wants to come along with and folding out his weaker hands/bluffs. If you really wanted to raise this flop I would prefer a hand like J9, ATs, and with some sets and maybe two pairs.
Turn: when the jack comes it isn't a bad hand for your range and will usually benefit you more than it does him so I quite like the bet on the turn. When he calls I can kind of feel strength off of him and will most likely give up on a lot of rivers and check-call. He has invested so much of his stack that a bluff will very rarely work.
On the river when the blank comes I am definitely calling. You are getting great odds and only need to call with 66% of your hands to prevent him from bluffing you too frequently. KQ is definitely within that range and you even block some his straight hands and his AQ hands.
Slam dunk call on the river - while high fiving everyone around!
I disagree that the turn favors more our range than villain's. It definitely favors both ranges, but we never really have the nuts on this turn; our opponent will.
Great analysis, I wasn't sure on the river at the time. But after looking at it myself I thought the call was best play. I was interested to see what other views were. My reasons for check raising the flop was just taking advantage of players that fold way too much and also to allow me to bluff more in this spot and remain balanced. Do you see any merit in this 3 handed? Guess I got carried away a bit and then wasn't sure what to do on the river.
He turned over ATs suited, so only a few more combos of flush draws and we can call here profitable so I think you're analysis spot on. Sadly there was no one around to high five with:)
''My reasons for check raising the flop was just taking advantage of players that fold way too much and also to allow me to bluff more in this spot and remain balanced. ''
These are two bad reasons to check/raise.
1. If people overfold vs a x/r, you don't want to x/r TPGK. You want to keep villain in the pot with the weaker part of his range, which you just implied he would fold.
2. Remain balanced at 5NL should not really be a concern. You want to go for max exploit (while of course having a decent idea of what a balanced range would look like)... and talking about exploit, you just said that you want to x/r to make them fold too much - which means you want to x/r bluff a lot more than for value.
Note: I don't know much about the pool at these stakes, so I'm not saying this actual strategy is the correct one. Just pointing out some inconsistencies in your reasoning.
Last small thing: if you want to x/r some of your QK here, go for a x/r with those combos that dont have the BDFD.
Hi Pierre, points 1 and 2 are valid. What is the reason for c/r without BDFD?
KQ is not a clear cut x/c or x/r, so you probably want to be mixing both. You can x/c with BDFD because you need slightly less protection and can keep calling comfortably on slightly more turns. As I write this, I realize it mostly applies to top pairs on slightly lower boards (here with KQ you dont really need any protection anyways). Say 9T on 459 for instance.
Using a similar thinking process, you much prefer having BDFD when you x/r as a bluff on the flop, because you will be able to barrel more turns with extra equity.
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