Thoughts on River Shove
Posted by pm6guy
Posted by
pm6guy
posted in
Low Stakes
Thoughts on River Shove
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
UTG: 103.72 BB (VPIP: 29.63, PFR: 17.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 81)
Hero (CO): 127.32 BB
BTN: 102.8 BB (VPIP: 23.42, PFR: 18.35, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 165)
SB: 123.48 BB (VPIP: 34.38, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
BB: 373.16 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 34.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 50)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Kc 8c
fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 7 BB, Hero calls 5 BB
Flop : (14.4 BB, 2 players) 5c Ac 2s
BB bets 6.84 BB, Hero calls 6.84 BB
Turn : (28.08 BB, 2 players) 7h
BB bets 8.88 BB, Hero raises to 23 BB, BB calls 14.12 BB
River : (74.08 BB, 2 players) Ks
BB checks, Hero bets 90.48 BB and is all-in, fold
Hero wins 70.4 BB
0.96 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.
-Couple Side notes: Seen this player a few hands before double barrel nut FD. then snap Check Back river. Additional consideration should be given that his 3-bets have thus far come from the BB and button (granted fairly an unknown player).
His c-bet sizing on flop and turn make him appear particularly weak as if he has a weak top pair or lesser draw. Thoughts on river were to fold out a weak ace as I wasn't entirely sure he didn't hold an A. Thanks in advance for any responses guys!
Loading 9 Comments...
Calling turn is plus EV and has little variance.
Raising turn and bluffing river is a high variance play, and noone knows if it is plus EV.
I'd rather call. You can find better choise for raising OTT, like 89ss?
I think raising the turn is not a bad idea. He would fold many stronger hands, and also you still have decent equity.
After that, Im not the biggest fan of your river shove. You have SV vs draws... And sometimes he has werid played sets, 2 pairs.
So, river play is marginal. You sould make a CREN analizing.
problem is that villain might, not "will" fold many stronger hands and calling is very profitable, so we need to him to fold a lot. And we have no idea how the f is he thinking. Sure, if the call would be less profitable (we'd be getting worse odds), than we can count on the fact that villain likely will fold at least some % and thats enough. But when our alternative option is soo profitable....
When would you recommend a turn raise Limp Limpson Limpson? As someone said shortly after you, I feel I would have had a tough time winning the pot unimproved as I can't necessarily be strong when flatting turn for that price. Doesn't calling open the door for him to blast the river? On the other hand, what strength can he rep when taking that sizing on the turn? Thanks man, appreciate it.
Thanks a lot for your response. It seems everyone agrees river shove was too spewy. May I ask what a "CREN analizing" is as I am not familiar? Take care.
Sorry for miss-spelling:
http://www.cardrunnersev.com/
CREV.
Pre: Fold as standard, imo or 4bet against ppl who 3bet too often. We just have better hands to defend with in ablosute value and/or flopability.
Flop: Obv. calling is fine, Raising is ok, but you dont rep that much besides AJ-AK (maybe), also price is great.
Turn: Never folding against that size, villain shows so much weakness that raising is fine as we will have trouble OTR unimproved.
River: As standard, I think we check back here, having the best hand often enough but rarely get called by worse. So unless villain stations/ hero calls you here with TT-QQ very often, I would rather take the Safe route. If you know he folds an Ace, you can obv. try to bluff him here, regardless of your SDV.
Preflop it's a loose defend, U could easily fold it.
Flop call is pretty standard. On the turn U got a great price too call, U have some 77, maybe 55, 22 (maybe U raise on the flop versus his size most of the time) what U can raise for value, some TP type hands like AQ, AJ, ATs, and some Axs and pairs like maybe TT - 66, and some draws.
I think Your range not benefit so much to start raising, because U represent a somewhat narrow value range, and also lot of hands want to call in Your range and not to raise.
As U see, U haven't got that much premium combo in Your range, so when U start raising the turn with them, and some bluff, Your range is got weaker, when U only call.
Also most of the times the preflop threebetor has the advantage on that type of boards, his range is stronger than Yours, so he can bet a lot.
Also if U wants to represent a range with pretty polarized like set+, and some strong draws as bluffs, a bigger raise size can work better.
In Your hand I think it's a happy call on the turn, and as played, U can chb the river with an occasional SD value.
Fold to the 3bet preflop.
As played I would just call the turn. There are better hands to x/r imo.
OTR I prefer a xb because we have some SDV but not that much & I don't know if there are a lot of better hands that villain will fold here.
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