live 2-5

$600 eff

Hero is HJ w JTdd and raises to $25 (CO posted dead blinds, so additional $7 dead money in play); just transferred to this game, first hand, all unknown players to me

CO folds

Bttn w 140bb, mid 40's, beard and hat makes it $65 (likely recreational given sizing, likely strong range)

SB 45-55 yr old, bald guy who is 400bb deep cold calls the $65
Folds to Hero, Hero calls $45.

Flop comes Jh3d5h
Check to button, Button bets $125 into $193

I know my flop fold was bad. I kinda froze mentally after switching to a new table and not being settled. I just wasn't looking at the situation clearly and had a moment of fear where I didn't want to lose a big pot.

I had reasons for the fold, like the preflop sizing being small, the c-bet sizing into 2 players being large, that made me justify he might have a stronger than normal range here. But def think we continue, given he needs so few bluffs, and we still have equity in the hand.

That's not what I am referencing here however. I think it's obvious my flop fold was a mistake. I think preflop, even with the great price 45/193 = 23.3%, I think we actually need to be folding this.

A quick equity calc with Flopzilla pro, shows JTs having around 22.8% vs the two ranges I gave the players. I thought this might be the case before even opening the software, because A) the bttn is probably a recreational player, meaning his range is likely very tight, and both of the ranges likely block my outs(broadways), as well as dominate my outs. So I think I can fold this preflop, just posting this to verify my line of thinking.