Don't like your line with the turn check with thin value bet on river. As played fold river

Agree.

agree, you can only beat a bluff and even tough the hand was played a bit shady on your end it doesnt justify a call

Betting turn is definitely better. But as played I would yes value bet river. This is a card that is perceived as great for you to bluff. He is repping 88-TT, JTs, QJs, KJs. So you`re probably only loosing to KJ. I would use a bigger sizing though. He reps a somewhat capped range that is composed mostly by bluff catchers. So you should be betting bigger with both your value and bluffs, putting pressure on his weakish range. I would make it around 62$.

As played I would fold. Against some people who are "turn weak pair into bluff vs capped range happy" you might find a call, cuz they love shoving 88-TT or JTs and stuff. Specially against this small size. But you need to have this specific read that they do that kind of thing a lot. Against most people you`ll just see KJ a ton of the time.

From running multiple sims over the past year I've found that going for 3 streets with AJ on most board run-outs is slightly too thin on this flop if the CO has a good balanced 3B flatting range i.e. some combos of QQ+ and AKo. For that reason checking one street is best. Which one? It depends. Checking the flop seems reasonable as it keeps dominated hands in like AQ also there are only two overcards we are worried about. 

On this board run out, if the opponent is playing a balanced strategy, you should be indifferent between calling down with AJ if 3 bets go in. 

I did a quick sim where we bet 42 on the river:

3B flatting range:

I have villian checking back the turn with this range, HC hands weighted at 50%. Also checking back all AJ he got to the turn with which may or may not be best.

Raising river:

Value =  AK+

Bluffing = AQ, 9T (weight 65%)

Folding = 88-TT (weight 70%)

Calling everything else

Very interesting analyses Kurt! 

I`m not that good on game theory and am very very interested on it and getting better at it. And I think it`s really important to understand that kind of thing.

But it`s also important to know that this is 200nl, and no one is playing even close to optimal, so you should still be making exploitative adjustments to the field and to each player.

Cheers :)

By using the above analysis we can then make exploitative adjustments.

From my experience most 200nl regs won't:

* Flat pre with any AK in these positions. 

* X back enough air on the turn -  hence turning more pairs into bluffs on the river.

Given these adjustments, I had villain getting to river with no AK and less air 15% (AQ, 9T). This of course makes the villains value range on the river is alot weaker; only KJ. 

If villain only value shoves KJ and bluffs all of his air on the river, we have a slightly +ev call

If he turns 5% of 88-TT into a bluff this is what our EV looks like: