The right spot/Villain for a 5bet bluff NL50
Posted by RaoulFlush
Posted by
RaoulFlush
posted in
Low Stakes
The right spot/Villain for a 5bet bluff NL50
BN: $98.88
SB: $50 (Hero)
BB: $52.08
UTG: $59.44
HJ: $79.17
CO: $65.11
SB: $50 (Hero)
BB: $52.08
UTG: $59.44
HJ: $79.17
CO: $65.11
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
4
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.50, BB folds, BN raises to $8, Hero raises to $50, and is all in
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.50, BB folds, BN raises to $8, Hero raises to $50, and is all in
Villain is a reg playin 29/23/8 and folding to 3bets for 77% and a 15% 4bet% in LP over a pretty decent sample (no exact BU-stat in Pt3)
I was pretty 3bet happy so far (HUD says 18% overall in 37 hands) and villain started to play back at me in these positions.
I need 46% to stackoff vs that range and have 41% vs a 15% range
Is it ok to 5betbluff this spot given dynamics? I tend to always shove my 5bets for 100BB btw.
and could someone plz reevaluate the difference bewteen 4b% and 4betrange? i always thought over a decent sample these numbers should become pretty similar?
Loading 8 Comments...
Your sample will likely be skewed when he picks up on what you are doing, so past hud numbers likely won't replicate what is going on. As for your play, after you're going bananas with the 3betting, just move straight to a counter-exploit strategy and 3b/5b a good value range, maybe AJs, 99+. Otherwise, to exploit his f3b being too high, you are essentially done when he 4bs, as that's a new situation as he hasn't folded to the 3b
if his 4bet is 15%, which is high, on lets say a 5k handsample the shove is massiv +ev obviously. combined with his high ft3bet it just means that he rarely calls 3bets and has a massiv leak with it.
These stats are a little weird in that he's folding to a ton of 3 bets but also 4 betting very wide. You don't mention what villain's button opening range is but if you've been 3 betting aggressively and villain decides to open up his 4 bet calling range (which seems likely given his style) this can definitely be a -ev shove. If villain opens 50% of buttons and starts 4 betting a range of 88+ and AQ+ for value vs you your jam should be about -6$ in ev. That being said, if villain is 4 betting a value range of 1010+ and AK+ for value while still 4 betting around 15% then you should make about 0.65$ on your jam. 5 bet jamming becomes a lot less appealing in this scenario because of the minraise as the first open, then the small sizing on the raises that follows. It's kind of crazy to think that villain can fold almost 60% to your jam and you still barely make a profit but that intuitively makes sense when there's less money to go after before your jam. Finally, don't worry about how much equity you have vs his actual 4 betting range. You care how you do vs his 4 bet calling range and a 15% 4 bet-calling range would be ridiculous as it would look something like 88+, AJ+, KQ, KJs.
*fingers crossed my math wasn't wrong*
villains 15% 4bet stat doesn't equal a 15% hand range
his 4bet range in this case is 3.45%
(example: a player with a PFR of 23 and a 4Bet of 15 raises 23% of hands, and 4 Bets 15% of those; 23 * 15 / 100 = 3.45% range)
Yeah, I took that into account in my post but was using 50% as the steal from the button. I missed that the 4 bet stat was from LP and not the button though so villain's 4 betting range should get a decent amount tighter. Either way, it looks like it's probably an optimistic jam.
was more of an explanation to RaoulFlush,
since he asked for the difference between 4bet preflop and 4bet range stat.
I think it is loose. These wheel suited aces are only good all in preflop vs narrower 4-bet value ranges. For example, in this hand,
http://weaktight.com/6437801
the guy was repping pretty much KK/AA/AK only for value so the A2s blocks a substantial bit of that and has great equity vs KK.
In your hand though his value range is 99+ AQ, so your best adjustment really is to 3-bet less from the sb and 5-bet jam with a wider range of strong hands.
A5 suited has 31.14% vs 99+ AQ+, but it also blocks many of the hands that would 4-bet bluff, such as ATo/AJo.
77 has 35.5%, and doesn't block the bluffing hands (nor AK/AQ which it is happy to flip with).
KQs/KJs/QJs/QTs/JTs all have 33-34% as they flip favorably vs 99-JJ and block QQ/KK/AK (and again, don't block the 4-bet bluff hands).
FWIW, AQo only has 35.6% vs that range.
So long story short, just widen your 5-bet "value" range and call it a day. No need to shove down this far.
thx for your replies guys...just another concept misunderstood i guess :(
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