Surprising solver output- Calling 3rd pair and folding 2nd pair
Posted by Dan A
Posted by
Dan A
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Mid Stakes
Surprising solver output- Calling 3rd pair and folding 2nd pair
I was doing some solver work and noticed this counter-intuitive result that I could use help understanding. The hand is a SRP BTN vs. BB. Board Q942 rainbow. Here's the action:
Flop Qc 9d 4s (5.5 BB)
BTN cbet 1.8 BB
BB x/raise to 7.3 BB
BTN calls
Turn Qc 9d 4s [2h]
BB bet 15 BB
BTN?
BB turn barrel range
BTN turn range vs. BB bet
I was really surprised to see the solver preferring to call 4x over 9x as the BTN player. At first I thought the 4x hands were preferred because they had an overcard like A4/K4 vs. the 9x hands like 97s, 96s. However the solver chooses to call and raise even the 4x hands like 64/54/43 over 97/96. Next I looked at the BB turn barrel range to look for blocking effects that would make BTN prefer calling with but nothing jumped out at me. Finally I looked through many other turn cards to see how BTN strategies shift, but consistently across almost all turn cards (aside from a 9 turn) the BTN was calling and raising much more with 4x and 9x.
Could the issue be that the 9x hands like J9 have kickers where if they make 2pair, villain will make some straights with their range so BTN is more likely to get coolered and lose a big pot? When the 6x hands like 64 make 2-pair, villain won't make any straights so BTN's EV is higher. This is the best explanation I can come up with.
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(Hi, Yolan from France,)
What is the PF range for BB ? 3bet Q4s Q9s at some frequencies ? Dont think it changes a lot but it can explain that.
I see what you mean, I already look a spot btn vs bb , x flop , ovb2x pot bb and BTN only makes a play with 3rd. paired (raising a lot)
In your spot I think its because unlock potential 9x which have incentive to raise the flop (but I dont think its that).
The main raison for me is that 4x blocks more nuts combos (3combos of 44) which are gonna play agressive most of the time after a x/r OTT and OTR.
Q9 has less incentive to play aggressivly on later street than 44, because it blocks more 2barrels, 3barrels calling range.
99 shouldnt be often in the bb range (3bet pre),
What do you think of it ?
BB range
Blocking 44 could be a possible explanation, although BB takes this line with Q9s and Q9o very often which is far more combos than 44, so I doubt this is why BTN calls more 4x than 9x.
Yes , i thought about it. Didnt finish what i wanted to say
When you look into x/r turn, its really often 3rd paired instead of 2nd pair..
In this spot , think that block 44 i more important than Q9 with a 9.
I Wasnt see BTN defending range.
As you surronded it, with a lot of 9x combos we dont have a "clean" dp is the other reason, and maybe the only one.
9T, 9J could be drawdead on
It could explain why we prefere to call K4 than
J9. You can be dominate, and you have reverses implied on a J, T, and all that stuff. OTR.
Also, you dont block a lot of value hand, and block combos of KJ, JT, J8 which can double barrel on the turn.
Even if we touch our K OTR and JT makes the straight, we still beat a lot of hand and dominate some of them.
Like Q9, Q4s, or KQ.
So the K when we have K4 for instance is cleaner than a J when we have J9.
If you look your defending range on a bb 3rd barrel, or reaction against a check you willl see a raise with some 4x hand, which are gonna be our bluff river most often.
Also, not calling 4x hand on a blank turn makes our ranges to strong and unbalanced river. Because we prefere to bluff 4x than JT T8 etc... For a question of removal effect.
Hope my english is in improvement.
Didn't look at the ranges, but it's very likely to be a matter of implied odds. When we call and hit our 5 outer with something like 43, the big blind is very likely to continue barreling the river aggressively. Whereas if we call the turn with J9, the BB isnt going to put in as much money in the pot when the river is a J or 9, simply because those cards are worse for his range. So we end up calling 43 and folding J9 because we win more money on average when we hit a hand.
This all has to do with blockers and unblockers
BB's highest frequent bluffs is around J/T wich makes you dont want to hold a J/T when you bluffcatch (even JJ folds at more than 50%) because you are reducing his bluffing frequency.
Why K4/A4 is pure calls and not weak 4x is hard to say,
but i would assume it's because K4/A4 have slightly more equity, because we can bink A/K and get a street from his worse 2pairs. Also K4 makes sense because you block fair abit off BB's valuerange(QKo)
So when in this situation, remember that blocking opponents main bluffs becomes bad bluffcatchers when ranges are narrow.
Cheers
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