suicide bluff? 25NL vs average thinking opponent

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suicide bluff? 25NL vs average thinking opponent

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BB: $21.82
UTG: $25.35
MP: $30.06 (Hero)
CO: $25.58
BN: $25.00
SB: $123.06
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is MP with J 9
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.56, CO folds, BN raises to $2.03, SB folds, BB calls $1.78, Hero calls $1.47
Flop ($6.19) 8 J 2
BB checks, Hero checks, BN bets $3.25, BB folds, Hero calls $3.25
Turn ($12.69) 8 J 2 5
Hero checks, BN checks

Hi Guys, I would like your opinion on the river play here :
river: 5d (pairs the board)
hero checks, villain bets 8.75$ , hero??

I felt like a jam in this spot puts our opponent in a tough position. I had no clear reads but it was on a regular table that I watched closely. He seemed like an average thinking player, not too out of line but not strong either.

What would you do? call, fold, or raise?

11 Comments

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Tawan6 8 years, 8 months ago

What is the purpose of the jam? I'm guessing it's to get folds as you don't think your hand is best. Line taken suggests you hit set OTF, slowed down when flush hit and filled up OTR - solid story. Question is: does villain have flush? Prob not, unless playing really tricky OTT. That leaves us with 1/2 pair type hands, which should definitely fold IMO. If villain does have flush, is he good enough to fold it?

Last question: if you hit set OTF, would you not x/r such a wet flop and try to GII there?

Dekkers 8 years, 8 months ago

Valuerange of villian looks like KJ AJ some overpairs. I rather bluff a hand like A8 since then we block the top of his range (AA,AJ).
Still I dont like to bluff in this spot, its a sport people dont like to bluff since our range doesn't look weak.

Kalupso 8 years, 8 months ago

Still I dont like to bluff in this spot, its a sport people dont like to bluff since our range doesn't look weak.

Do you mean villain has too few bluffs in his range to bluff-raise him?

Tawan6 8 years, 8 months ago

If board comes a blank and doesn't pair here, do we still feel great about getting value from AJ/KJ? Basically, does TPTK/okay kicker go up or down in value when board pairs?

I feel like with TP i never get three streets of value as i assume nobody calls down and shows up with worst very often. What you think guys?

Kalupso 8 years, 8 months ago

Depends on what card pairs and the ranges. Neither player has much 5x here so it's more of a blank than most other cards. There is probably a tiny bit more 5x in villains range.

NickHalden 8 years, 8 months ago

The thing is that when the board pairs, would you x/r AI a flush here? Or b/f or even x/c?
I think you are very polarized here to nuts or a complete bluff, and I think you will x/r set very often on this wet boards. I don't know if this is the best spot to bluff

wyz 8 years, 8 months ago

Hands are better than you: better J, flush, full house.

Do you think an average thinking opponent better J will bet river?

Tawan6 8 years, 8 months ago

I'm not sure about average thinking player at this stake. To bet J here is high level play, trying to balance frequencies and merge ranges so you are betting river with top of range and well as weak hands (not bluffs). This will only work against another good thinking player, unless you just get picked off every time by station not thinking on that level. At least that's what i think anyway.

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