Hello Gentlemen, I was playing around with some stats the other night and came across something I found to be alarming. I have been over this over and over again in my head and I am quite sure I am not missing something.

The PT4 database on my laptop contains 862,840 hands. All of these hands have been played on Ignition.

So, I got to thinking the other night and I ran a filter to see how often I was being dealt the top 5%, top 10%, top 20%, etc. of hands. Based off of my sample, archaic math (no variance involved) would dictate I should have been dealt a top 5% hand 862,840 * 5% = 43,142 times. When I run the 5% filter in PT4, I was dealt a top 5% hand 40,199 times. Obviously, these numbers are going to be different, but a spread of 2,943 occurrences or 6.8% seems very high (extreme run bad) for a relatively substantial sample. In the grand scheme of things, close to 1,000,000 is a pretty small sample with the exponential nature of numbers.

So, my request, is that those of you with decently sized databases check this out on your own and post your findings here in this thread.

Basically just filter for all hands in your database, this will tell you exactly how many hands you have played. Once you get this number, multiply it by 5% to get your expectation (again, simple math, no variance stuff, etc.). Then, go to PT4, filter for the following hole cards (AA-TT, AQs+ and AQo+ which is exactly 5%). Compare the two and post the computations in this thread.

As I expanded on this experiment, I did the same thing for top 10% of hands and then top 20%. My 10% and 20% numbers were within 1% of what the numbers "should" be. It is just at the top where things are weird.

My winrate, when I am dealt a top 5% hand is 340bb/100+ or 3.39bb/hand. As you can see, this period of variance has a massive impact on things.

So, those of you who go through the process I have described above and post your findings, I thank you in advance and I look forward to seeing the results.

I promise, this is not a bad beat post or "the site is rigged!!!!!!" post. I understand we will run below expectation. I am just curious to see where we all fall in the spectrum of things.

Thanks again