STD check-call or STD bet call?

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STD check-call or STD bet call?

CO: $1668.75
BN: $581.70
SB: $458.74
BB: $685.32
HJ: $1054.75 (Hero)
Preflop ($6.00) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt Q K
Hero raises to $12, CO folds, BN calls $12, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($30.00) 8 K 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $22.50, BN calls $22.50
Turn ($75.00) 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $56.25, BN calls $56.25
River ($187.50) K (2 Players)
Hero checks
Hi guys,

Could I please get your thoughts on this one?

BTN plays 35/30 and 7% 3bet. Total Agg freq% is 49 and agg freq% on river is 18%, the sample is 132 hands.
He has called flop cbet and turn cbet both times he called a raise pre so I would give him a lot of busted FDs, busted straight draws on the river. I think I should fold out a lot of small and medium PPs on turn,

Would you say that its better to check-call river than bet-call river here? How does the 1500bbs effect your decision?

The hand is played on a swedish site site and $1 = 7 SEK

4 Comments

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igotya 12 years, 3 months ago
A guy who plays 35/30 sounds like a guy who will be bluttcatching as much as he is allowed. I think you need a good read on his tendencies in order to check river, he will have some A8s, 68s, 78s, 98s, T8s, (J8s), (Q8s), (K8s), 66, 77, 99, TT, (JJ), Those hands alone is at least 30combos that can bluffcatch river but likely will ck back.

However he will have at most these fds in his flop flatting range (AQdd), AJdd, ATdd, A9dd, A7dd, A6dd, A4dd, A3dd, A2dd, QJdd, QTdd, Q9dd, JTdd, J9dd, T9dd. Which is 13combos and then discount some maybe a lot depending on how frequent he will be raising his nut fds.

Though if he does have a worse K, you stack him by c/j the river. You have to make some assumptions in spots like these, in general mine would be that some people might not bluff the river when i ck (decreases overall value of checking), People will call A LOT more of their madehand-range here vs a bet, than they will bet themselves when checked to.

A 35/30 bluffcatches too much, and even though he is loose, the hands that he can bluff is very limited given that you bet twice, you cant assume that he double floats until you have seen it. (You can consider c/c turn, if you think his flop peeling range is wide).

So basically when you ck you will lose a lot of value from his bluffcatching hands.

I might have forgot something, it started to become a wall of text, a bit hard to read through :-)
James Hudson 12 years, 3 months ago
Excellent post. As you alluded to, it's far more likely at low and mid stakes that people make the mistake of calling too much in these spots rather than value betting too thinly.
Skirken 12 years, 3 months ago
Thanks a lot for the time and effort you put into your answer. I Thought that I might have started to check to many rivers to induce bluffs, and I think your answer points in that direction when it comes to this specific hand as well. I guess I have to have more of a read on FI before starting to check to induce like this. Again, thank you for your answer.

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