standard spot 3b pot with OVERPAIR in position, is this bet/call too ambitious?

Posted 7 years, 10 months ago

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players) BN: $200.00
SB: $435.78
BB: $1150.09
UTG: $206.00
MP: $660.84 (Hero)
CO: $656.89

Preflop ($3.00) Hero is MP with K K

UTG raises to $6.00, Hero raises to $21.00, 4 folds, UTG calls $15.00

Flop ($45.00) 5 3 7

UTG checks, Hero bets $14.11, UTG calls $14.11

Turn ($73.22) 5 3 7 J

UTG checks, Hero bets $50.03, UTG raises to $170.89 and is all in, Hero calls $120.86

So villain opens 18%, 4b % 5.0 overall, does not fold much to 3bets

OTF I like 1/3 with 100% of my range

OTT I am torn between a "standard" 2nd barrel straight up for value and a check behind because "obviously he has JJ now"...

Facing these check raise allins I am really sure of how we should perceive the pool and if wether or not we can fold exploitatively...?!

We need 29% equity and this is a range I constructed for him that would kind of make this a close call.

Not sure about the A2 clubs, 78clubs though... He might have some QQ, a KK, sometimes AA even though I expect a 4b with his 4b stat most of the time!

Board: 7d5c3cJh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 67.42% 63.26% 4.17% { JJ, 77, AdAh, KdKh, QdQs, AcQc, 8c7c, Ac2c }
MP3 32.58% 28.41% 4.17% { KsKc }

1 combo FD removed this drops to exactly 29% and he would prolly c/c Aclub Qclub too...

Sooo, I guess these are folds?!... :(